Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Support Intact Ahead of Fed, SNB

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels

USD/CHF rebound off technical support poised to mark third-straight daily advance
USD/CHF trend resistance in view- risk for exhaustion / price inflection into Fed, SNB
Resistance 8170, 8217/25 (key), 8316/33- Support 8091-8103 (key), 8060, 8000

The US Dollar is poised to mark a third straight daily advance against the Swiss Franc today with USD/CHF rallying more than 1.3% off the monthly low. A rebound off downtrend support is now approaching resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. Battles lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook we noted that USD/CHF had rebounded off near-term technical support with a close above 8280 needed to fuel the next leg of the recovery. Price registered an intraday high at 8250 into the June open before breaking lower with USD/CHF testing more significant support at the multi-year downtrend this week. Looking for a reaction off this mark with the FOMC & Swiss National Bank rate decisions on tap over the next 48 hours.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Swisse price action shows USD/CHF trading within a descending channel extended off the May 14^th high. Initial support rests with the 2025 low-day close (LDC) / 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline at 8091-8103 and is backed closely by the 100% extension of the May decline at 8060. A break / close below this threshold is needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline with subsequent objectives seen at the 80-handle and the 1.618% extension at 7882.

Initial resistance is eyed with the 61.8% extension at 8170 with near-term bearish invalidation now lowered to 8217/25- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the May decline and the objective monthly open. Ultimately, a breach / close above the 61.8% retracement / 2023 lows at 8316/33 would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger trend reversal is underway.

Bottom line: USD/CHF has rebounded off confluent downtrend support with a three-day rally now approaching initial resistance hurdles. Risk for topside exhaustion ahead of event risk into the close of the week. From a trading standpoint, the key range break is 8091-8225 for guidance- rallies would need to be limited to the monthly open for the May downtrend to remain viable with a close sub-8060 needed to mark resumption.

Keep in mind that while no change is expected from the Fed tomorrow, traders will be focused on the updated economic projections on growth, inflation and employment. The SNB is on tap the following day with markets widely expecting the central bank to cut by 25basis points, taking the benchmark rate to 0%. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.