Trade talks and Brexit talk

By : Global author , Financial Analyst

February 13, 2019 8:21 AM

Markets update: trade talks and Brexit talk

A third consecutive day of global stock market gains is on track after Washington signals that talks with Beijing are progressing, with a “little” slide of the 1st March deadline possible
European shares hold firm as sectors sensitive to last year’s tariff hikes react well. Mining and metal and technology indices are up 1% to 1.5%
Iberian shares lag; IBEX-35 falls 0.2%; PSI-20 off 0.9%. Region’s bond yields rise on higher chances of a snap Spanish election
U.S. futures hold positive territory
European indices → DAX: +0.2%; FTSE MIB: +0.6%; STOXX: +0.4%; FTSE: +0.5%;
U.S. index futures → Dow: +0.3%; S&P: +0.3%; Nasdaq: +0.5%

Stock highlights

European earnings take a turn for the better as Akzo Nobel, the Dutch chemical group beats forecasts, lifting its shares 3.4% and the chemical sector by 1%
Smurfit Kappa has a similar impact on rival paper and packaging firms as the Irish group’s stock adds 4% on above-forecast earnings
Investors are more optimistic about Europe’s corporate outlook as a weekly consensus forecast for Q4 rises for the first time since mid-November.
The trend of less than solid banking earnings continues though. Loan losses drag ABN Amro’s Q4 results lower

FX

Sterling stand outs, despite increasingly byzantine Brexit prospects and inflation at a two-year low. Fresh, albeit flimsy, Brexit delay talk sparked a 70-pip cable surge earlier and a 40-odd pip EUR/GBP run though a fade is now on
NZD/JPY’s RBNZ-fuelled advance ran into offers near ¥76 echoing a ¥75.91 top that kicked off a correction a week ago
The broader backdrop is a weakening dollar as its safe-haven trade-related appeal dwindle
Most majors move off highs into the U.S. CPI release at the bottom of the hour

Remaining data/highlights

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Local Time	Country	Indicator Name	Period	Reuters Poll	Actual	Prior	Revised
02:00	China (Mainland)	Total Social Financing	Jan	3,250.00B		1,589.80B
09:30	United Kingdom	CPI MM	Jan	-0.7%	-0.8%	0.2%
09:30	United Kingdom	CPI YY	Jan	1.9%	1.8%	2.1%
09:30	United Kingdom	RPI MM	Jan	-0.8%	-0.9%	0.4%
09:30	United Kingdom	RPI YY	Jan	2.6%	2.5%	2.7%
09:30	United Kingdom	RPIX YY	Jan		2.5%	2.7%
09:30	United Kingdom	PPI Input Prices MM NSA	Jan	0.3%	-0.1%	-1.0%	-1.6%
09:30	United Kingdom	PPI Input Prices YY NSA	Jan	3.8%	2.9%	3.7%	3.2%
09:30	United Kingdom	PPI Output Prices MM NSA	Jan	0.0%	0.0%	-0.3%
09:30	United Kingdom	PPI Output Prices YY NSA	Jan	2.2%	2.1%	2.5%	2.4%
09:30	United Kingdom	PPI Core Output MM NSA	Jan	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
09:30	United Kingdom	PPI Core Output YY NSA	Jan	2.3%	2.4%	2.5%	2.4%
10:00	Euro Zone	Industrial Production MM	Dec	-0.4%	-0.9%	-1.7%
10:00	Euro Zone	Industrial Production YY	Dec	-3.2%	-4.2%	-3.3%	-3.0%
13:30	United States	Core CPI YY, NSA	Jan	2.1%	2.2%	2.2%
13:30	United States	CPI MM, SA	Jan	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%
13:30	United States	CPI YY, NSA	Jan	1.5%	1.6%	1.9%
13:30	United States	Labor Costs Prelim	Q4	1.7%		0.9%
13:30	United States	Productivity Prelim	Q4	1.7%		2.3%	2.2%
23:50	Japan	GDP QQ	Q4	0.4%