U.S. Dollar Price Action Setups: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, Gold, BTC

U.S. Dollar Talking Points:

 

• The U.S. Dollar has been beaten down so far this year which stands in stark contrast to the reversal that took over in Q4 of 2025. But, as of this writing, USD has defended a big spot of support and this has come along with pullbacks in EUR/USD and USD/CAD.
• USD/JPY presents a possible driver of continued USD-weakness, especially if rate cut odds lean heavier towards more softening in the U.S. later this year. But so far USD/JPY has held the psychological level of 140.00 which was the same spot that held the lows last year. The worry would be larger signs of carry unwind which could create de-leveraging tendencies in other markets, such as stocks while also continuing to add pressure to the USD.

The USD sell-off continued through this week’s open with a big spot of long-term support coming into play. There’s both a trendline projection and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement in close proximity to the Monday low which has produced a sizable bounce already.

 

U.S. Dollar Monthly Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

USD Weekly

 

As looked at last week, the US Dollar went oversold on the weekly chart for only the second time in the past seven years. As shared in last week’s webinar this oversold reading doesn’t spell automatic reversal – but it does make it more difficult for bears to chase trends lower which can, eventually, lead to a reversal backdrop.

At this point the USD remains oversold on the weekly chart but the non-completed weekly bar is currently showing as a hammer, which if that confirms at the weekly close, would keep open the possibility of a larger pullback.

For resistance, there’s two key spots overhead, at least year’s low of 100.21 and then the 102 level which is near a key Fibonacci level.

 

US Dollar Weekly Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

USD/JPY

 

One source of USD-weakness has been the continued unwind of carry trades, and that’s evident in USD/JPY as the pair has pushed down for a test of a major level from last year.

It was the USD/JPY sell-off last summer that was being accused of the source for pain in equities, and USD/JPY had a bearish fundamental backdrop as the US was nearing rate cuts and Japanese inflation remained high, bringing with it the prospect of BoJ rate hikes which would equate to even more rate compression and more drive for carry unwind scenarios.

But that did not play out – as the 140.00 level traded for only one day as it helped to set last year’s low, and then when the Fed did actually cut rates for the first time last year USD/JPY set a higher-low and then continued to rally. And then the Q4 reversal in the USD took over an USD/JPY went along for the ride.

This year, however, has been a far different fate for both markets as USD-weakness has played more aggressively since the currency topped in the first couple weeks of the new year, and USD/JPY has sold off alongside DXY.

After the open this week USD/JPY tested that same spot of support from last year at the 140.00 handle, and so far that’s held the lows, so the bounce in both USD and USD/JPY has been assisted by this key spot on the chart.

The big question now is whether the bounce in USD/JPY brings out more sellers, and if it does, the case for continued sell-off in USD strengthens. And notably, USD/JPY has been difficult with bear traps so far this year so lower-high resistance could present a more compelling case for sellers. I’m tracking resistance at 143.96 and then around the 145.00 level as the next spots up on the USD/JPY chart.

USD/JPY Weekly Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

EUR/USD 1.1500

 

At the outset of the week EUR/USD tested and failed to hold above the 1.1500 level. I highlighted this level in the weekly forecast and it remains a major spot on the chart.

Going along with the oversold reading on the USD weekly chart is an overbought reading on the weekly EUR/USD chart, which is rare. Like the USD above, this doesn’t mean that an automatic reversal is imminent, but it does highlight the danger of chasing breakouts such as we saw from earlier this week.

The remains significant support structure at this point that sellers will need to chew through to claw back control, but at this point, I would consider higher-low support potential at both 1.1275 and 1.1200. Below that, 1.1100 and 1.1000 could still be entertained for support, as well.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

Gold

 

Gold has been in a parabolic-like trend for much of 2025 and there’s been several overbought readings on daily, weekly and monthly charts.

Gold touched the psychological level at $3500 and since then prices have been paring back and the sell-off so far today has been aggressive. But this doesn’t necessarily mean that the trend has turned as the bigger question is whether bulls show up to show support at prior resistance, similar to what happened earlier in April as gold found support at the 2956 level.

For that scenario, there’s potential at 3245, 3149-3167, 3057 and even the 3k level, as all would have a case as a higher-low above the swing earlier in April.

 

Gold Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

Bitcoin

 

If we are seeing a shift away from gold, there could be budding interest in Bitcoin. This would be somewhat similar to the summer of 2020, when gold first began to test the 2k level that held as resistance for the next three-and-a-half years and, at the time, Bitcoin was struggling to get back above the 12k level.

In the webinar a few weeks ago I looked at a falling wedge formation in Bitcoin and that has since led to a strong bullish breakout. There’s now support potential at prior resistance, around the 88,722-90k level and then around the 85k level that was resistance ahead of the more recent breakout.

 

BTC/USD Bitcoin Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist