US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD Stabilizes Near Support—Recovery Risk Builds

US Dollar Index Technical Forecast: USD Weekly Trade Levels (DXY)

DXY has stabilized after a sharp decline, holding above a key support zone.
Price action suggests a potential near-term recovery within a broader downtrend.
A sustained rebound would signal a stronger recovery phase while failure to hold support would expose the Dollar to renewed downside pressure.
Event risk ahead: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Personal Consumption Expenditures next week
Resistance ~98.62, 99.49, 100.16/42 (key)- Support 98.24, 97.50/65, 96.88/98 (key)

The US Dollar is attempting to stabilize after a notable pullback from the yearly high, with price holding at a key support zone within a broader declining structure. The move suggests a potential shift in near-term momentum, but the recovery remains tentative as the index approaches initial resistance. The reaction in the sessions ahead will be critical in determining whether this bounce can extend or if the broader downtrend resumes. Battle lines drawn on the DXY weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

US Dollar Price Chart – USD Weekly (DXY)

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s US Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that DXY had, “rallied into pivotal resistance with the index poised to mark the largest single-weekly advance since November of 2024. The focus is on inflection off this zone next week.” The index reversed the following week with a break lower in early-April extending nearly 3% off the yearly high.

Price rebounded off confluent support last week at the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range and the 2025 low-week close (LWC) at 97.50/65. The immediate focus is on a reaction off this mark with the bears vulnerable near-term while above.

Initial weekly resistance is eyed with the 52-week moving average (currently ~98.62) and is backed by the 61.8% retracement of recent decline and the January swing highs at 99.49. Key resistance remains unchanged at 100.16/42- a region defined by the yearly high-week close (HWC), the July high, and the 2024 low-week close (LWC) / low. A weekly close above this region is needed to fuel the next major leg of the USD advance.

Initial support rests with the yearly open at 98.24 and is backed by 97.50/65. Key support rests with the yearly low-week close (LWC) and the 2025 low-close at 96.88/98. A break / weekly close below this threshold would ultimately be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend and fuel the next major leg of the decline towards the yearly low 95.55.

Bottom line: U.S. Dollar has rebounded off confluent support with the index attempting to snap a three-week decline off the yearly high. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 99.49 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 97.50 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.

Event risk is limited until next week with the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures on tap. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest US Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term DXY technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.