US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF
USD/CHF falls toward the 50-Day SMA (0.9029) as the five-day rally in the exchange rate unravels.
USD/CHF Falls Towards 50-Day SMA as Five-Day Rally Unravels
USD/CHF is on track to mark the largest single-week decline since August as it sells off ahead of the monthly high (0.9197), and the exchange rate may no longer track the positive slope in the moving average if it closes below the indicator for the first time since October.
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In turn, USD/CHF may give back the advance from the January low (0.8966) as there appears to be a change in trend, but the exchange rate may consolidate over the remainder of the week should it defend the monthly low (0.9002).
With that said, USD/CHF may trade within the opening range for February should it struggle to close below the 50-Day SMA (0.9029), but the exchange rate may continue to gut check the moving average amid the failed attempt to test the January high (0.9201).
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CHF Price on TradingView
- USD/CHF snaps the recent series of higher highs and lows as it tumbles to a fresh weekly low (0.9035), and a break/close below the 0.9030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.9040 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region may lead to a test of the monthly low (0.9002).
- Failure to defend the January low (0.8966) may push USD/CHF towards the 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.8910 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone, but the exchange rate may track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.9029) if it continues to close above the moving average.
- Need a breach above the monthly high (0.9197) to bring the January high (0.9201) on the radar, with a close above 0.9180 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) opening up the October 2023 high (0.9245).
Additional Market Outlooks
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GBP/USD Halts Selloff to Carve Bullish Engulfing Candlestick
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
