What mattered last week:
- The S&P500 fell for a second week running after the Democrats opened an impeachment inquiry into President Trump as well as mixed signals on the U.S.- China trade war.
- Specifically reports emerged on Friday that the White House was considering restricting U.S. investment in Chinese companies.
- Another chapter in the Brexit saga as the UK Supreme Court concluded that PM Boris Johnsons suspension of parliament was unlawful.
- Economic data in Europe continued to deteriorate highlighted by business PMI’s falling again in September.
- Locally, RBA Governor Lowe delivered a speech titled “An economic update” that contained enough dovish elements to suggest the RBA will cut rates again this coming Tuesday.
- The AUDUSD closed the week relatively unchanged near .6770.
- As did the ASX 200, closing ~6716.1 as bank stocks remained firm and offsetting losses in resource stocks, including BHP which fell -2.1%.
For the week ahead, the key events are:
Australia: Private sector credit (Monday), building approvals and RBA interest rate meeting, balance of trade (Thursday), retail sales (Friday).
- RBA interest rate meeting (Tuesday): After dovish RBA minutes and unemployment rose to a 12 month high, the interest rate market is now 80% priced for a cut to 0.75% on Tuesday.
New Zealand: Building approvals, ANZ business confidence (Monday), NZEIR business confidence (Tuesday), global dairy trade auction (Wednesday), business NZ PMI (Friday).
China: NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Caixin manufacturing PMI (Monday).
Japan: Retail sales, industrial production, housing starts (Monday), unemployment, Tankan large manufacturers index (Tuesday), consumer confidence (Wednesday).
U.S.: ISM manufacturing PMI (Wednesday), factory orders and employment (Friday).
- Employment (Friday): The market is looking for a 160,000 rise in payrolls, the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.7% and wages growth of 3.2% year on year.
Canada: GDP and Markit manufacturing PMI (Tuesday), balance of trade and Ivey PMI (Friday).
Euro Area: German retail sales, German and EA unemployment, German inflation (Monday), EA inflation (Tuesday), EA retail sales and PPI (Thursday), German construction (Friday).
- Euro area inflation (Tuesday): Core inflation is likely to remain tepid at 0.9% year on year.
UK: Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI (Tuesday), Markit/CIPS services PMI (Thursday).
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