Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls after mixed data, corporate earnings

US futures                                         

Dow futures -0.40%, S&P futures -0.37%  & Nasdaq futures -0.85%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE -0.23% & DAX -0.66%

• Stocks rise as weaker jobs data lifts Fed rate cuts
• Concerns over tech valuations linger
• Challenger job cuts reach the highest level in two decades in October
• Oil rises as supply fears ease

Challenger job cuts reach 150k

US stocks are falling as investors weigh up mixed economic data and corporate earnings, while valuation concerns remain.

The leading indices on Wall Street are falling, giving up yesterday’s gains. Magnificent seven firms remained mixed as the caution surrounding lofty tech valuations that weighed on the markets earlier in the week continues to linger.

Data show that a U.S. company announced the most job cuts for any October in more than 20 years. The October Challenger report showed that US employers cut more than 150,000 jobs, driven by industries adopting AI-driven changes and cost-cutting measures. Tech firms lead job cuts in the private sector, followed by retailers.

The data comes after ADP payrolls were stronger than expected yesterday, rising by 42k, up from -25k in September. ISM services PMI was also stronger than forecast.

According to the data, the market is now pricing in a 69% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction in December, up from 62% yesterday.  However, the Fed rate cut repricing isn’t lifting sentiment.

No more data is due this week owing to the US government shutdown. Fed speakers will also be in focus as investors look for clues over the likelihood of a rate cut next month.

Corporate news 

Qualcomm is falling by over 3% on fears that it will lose Apple as a customer for its modem business in the coming years. This overshadowed quarterly sales and profits above expectations, as premium smartphone sales rebounded.

Snap is up 14% after the social media firm beat Q3 revenue estimates and said it partnered with Perplexit to integrate an AI-powered search engine into Snapchat.

Lyft is rising 7% after the ride-hailing company posted encouraging bookings for the all-important holiday travel season, banking on expansion into global markets and smaller U.S. cities to help spur growth..

Dow Jones forecast – technical analysis.

The Dow Jones ran into resistance at 48,000 and has eased lower, testing support at 470,000, the October 2 high. The prices remain above its rising trendline and 50 SMA, so the bullish bias remains. However, the shooting star candlestick is a reason to be cautious; this is often a bearish reversal pattern. A break below 47,000 could open the door to 46,300, the rising trendline, and 50 SMA support. A break below 45200 would create a lower low.

FX markets – USD falls, GBP/USD steadies

The U.S. dollar is easing lower after reaching a 5-month high in the previous session, following better-than-expected ADP payroll and services PMI data on Wednesday.

EUR/USD is rising amid a weaker USD, despite Eurozone retail sales falling again in September, defying expectations of a 0.2% rise. Sales fell -0.1% MoM in September, in line with August. However, recent data from the region has pointed to an improvement in growth.

GBP/USD is rising to 1,31 after the BoE left interest rates unchanged at 4%, in line with expectations. However, the vote was more dovish than expected, 5-4, against the 6-3 expected. The BoE removed the word “careful” from its guidance, now saying that rates are on a gradual path lower. The dovish hold saw GBP/USD briefly fall to 1.3060 before recovery,

Oil rises as supply worries ease

Oil prices are rising towards 60.00 after recent declines as supply glut fears ease as sanctions on Russian firms begin to take effect.

The latest sanctions, which were applied to Russian firms Rosneft and Lukoil two weeks ago, are starting to raise concerns about supply, despite OPEC+’s output increases.

Global oil prices declined for a third straight month in October on fears of a supply glut as OPEC+ ramped up output. However, the oil cartel has said that it will pause output increases in Q1 of 2026.

Demand weakness remains an issue. Year to date, Cable oil demand has risen by 850,000 barrels per day, below the 900,000 barrels per day projected by JP Morgan. The bank believes that high-frequency indicators suggest U.S. oil consumption remains subdued.

Yesterday, EIA inventory data showed that stockpiles rose by 5.2 million barrels to 421.2 million barrels last week.