Articles tagged with "energy"

US equity index futures surrendered an earlier midday bounce in London, as investors struggled to look past an increasingly uncomfortable macro backdrop. Higher oil prices and rising government bond yields are combining to put renewed pressure on risk assets, while the absence of a clear catalyst for improvement makes it difficult to see why investors would materially increase equity exposure at current levels.

The ECB’s decision on Thursday comes between two important US inflation releases, leaving EUR/USD forecast exposed to developments on both sides of the Atlantic, as well as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. 10-year and 30-year bond yields have moved higher as markets reopen after the Labor Day weekend, with the producer price index and the consumer price index landing within days of each other. The European Central Bank decision sits between them, where the economic projections and Christine Lagarde's press conference carry more market risk than the rate move itself. The DAX has also broken below its 21-day exponential moving average, a sign that momentum beneath a resilient index is starting to fade.

Following a weak handover from Asia, European markets and US indices were under pressure this morning, as rising oil prices and elevated bond yields once again weighed on risk appetite. Among the major European indices, the German DAX will be in firm focus this week, with the ECB’s rate decision coming up on Thursday. That decision is likely to be a hike, as rising oil prices threaten to re-accelerate inflation.

Oil prices have surged for a second consecutive day, after the US and Iran traded strikes for the first time in two weeks and re-escalated the tensions. WTI oil was climbing to one-month highs and threatening to break above a key bearish trend line, at the time of writing. The latest leg higher is being driven primarily by the renewed escalation in tensions between the US and Iran, with traders ignoring the controversial US-Venezuela deal for now

Oil slipped despite fresh sanctions because markets are weighing a diplomatic path back to talks, including a reported push from Pakistan to revive stalled negotiations. In Germany, the Ifo Institute business climate index climbed to a one-year high for a fourth straight month, which helps explain why the DAX sits near record levels and why the euro has resisted selling pressure. Attention now turns to U.S. core PCE inflation data and the Jackson Hole symposium, with Treasury yields still elevated and capable of turning on the dollar.

WTI was given every excuse to rally on Monday but didn’t, with mounting supply risks not enough to prevent a sharp reversal.

Crude oil prices rose more than 3% by mid-day in London, causing stocks and bonds to drop. Prices have rallied after Trump said Iran had been given an opportunity to reach a deal but had failed to take it. But now Trump said an unprecedented economic operation against Iran will be underway, warning of severe economic consequences for countries providing support to Tehran.

Crude oil prices continue to press higher amid the ongoing standoff between the US and Iran. While the softness in US and Chinese data of late does point to some moderation in demand, oil prices remain predominately supply-driven.

Crude oil and bond yields are both climbing while the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, yet global equity markets have barely reacted.

Crude oil prices rose more than 2.5% on Tuesday, extending their recent recovery. Reports that commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz had come under attack, reminded markets that geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain far from being resolved completely. Markets are also wary of a still tight market and the expected buying of oil to fill up emergency stocks.

Oil prices initially opened higher following weekend reports that Iran had once again moved to restrict activity through the Strait of Hormuz. However, that early strength quickly faded, with crude retreating towards levels seen at the end of last week. At the time of writing, WTI crude was down around 2.5%, hovering near intraday lows. Part of the weakness reflects the fact that the strait was not completely shut, despite shipping data showing a notable decline in vessel traffic. More importantly, investors have responded positively to diplomatic developments in the region.