EURUSD, Nasdaq Outlook: Risk Sentiment Mixed
As gold surges to record highs near $3,800, market risk sentiment does not appear overly fearful, given the stability of the DXY, EURUSD’s rebound toward 1.18, and the Nasdaq’s advance to new records above 24,700.
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Key Events
- Eurozone flash manufacturing and services PMIs delivered mixed results.
- DXY is holding above 97, while EURUSD is flirting with 1.18 again.
- Nasdaq continues to set new records above 24,700 despite gold’s record-breaking rally.
Growth stocks are leading as markets transition out of the summer lull and into the fall season, where liquidity typically improves. Demand for both growth stocks and safe havens appears to be rising in tandem.
- Nasdaq is trading above 24,700.
- Dow is trading above 46,400.
- Nvidia and Apple are flirting with record highs at 184 and 256, respectively.
- Gold is trading above 3,780.
- EURUSD edged slightly higher at 1.18.
Normally, such elevated gold prices would suggest dampened risk sentiment. However, the parallel strength in technology and AI stocks—now increasingly perceived as new safe havens due to their central role in driving economic growth—may be creating a shift in the traditional haven dynamic. Still, the shadow of geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine, ongoing unrest in the Middle East, and trade uncertainties with the U.S. warrant cautious optimism.
Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties
EURUSD Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
Although EURUSD has slipped back below 1.18, it staged a strong rebound from the 1.1720 support level, marked by a bullish engulfing pattern and a daily RSI bounce from the neutral 50 line after reaching overbought extremes.
- A clean break and hold above 1.1830 is expected to extend gains toward 1.1920, with further upside aligning with the 2021 highs at 1.2020 and 1.2140.
- On the downside, a drop back below 1.1720 and 1.1650 would likely revive bearish momentum, opening the path to 1.1590 and 1.1500, respectively.
Nasdaq Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
Looking at the Nasdaq chart from a daily time frame perspective, we can see that price action is trading above the 24,700-resistance zone. A hold above this zone may open the path toward 24,900–25,000, and potentially 25,700, in line with continued positive demand for technology and AI-related investments.
On the downside, should a pullback occur below 24,200, a rebound opportunity may be present around 23,900. If not, deeper stress may extend toward the 23,700 level, which could offer another potential buy-the-dip opportunity unless proven otherwise:
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
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