Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ muted with payroll revisions in focus

US futures                                         

Dow futures 0.07%, S&P futures 0.06%  & Nasdaq futures 0.12%

In Europe

FTSE 0.18% & -DAX 0.67%

• US stocks are muted near record highs
• Investors price in a 25bps or even a 50bps cut
• Apple falls ahead of Awe-dropping event
• Oil rises for a third straight day

Stocks rise on Fed rate cut expectations

US stocks are muted around record highs, higher as investors await payroll benchmark revision data, which could further support Fed rate cut expectations.

The preliminary estimate of the nonfarm payroll benchmark will be published today amid expectations that as many as a million jobs could slash the level of US employment for the 12 months through to March.

The data comes on the back of weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls on Friday, which showed that job growth had stalled, and the June revision, which showed that job creation fell for the first time since 2021.

After Friday’s job data, the market lifted rate cut expectations to price in a September rate cut entirely. Investors see a 90% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points and a 10% probability of a larger 50 basis point cut. A significant downward revision to the payroll benchmark data would signal that the jobs market is significantly weaker than initially thought. This may mean the Fed is behind the curve on rate cuts and could fuel outsized rate reduction bets.

Attention will also be on the US CPI data later in the week. However, given recent weakness in the jobs market, sticky inflation is not likely to knock the Fed off its path.

Corporate news

Oracle isn't Shanghai, which is ahead of quarterly results that come off to the closing bell today. This is where we came to see whether Oracle provides another glimpse into the enthusiasm surrounding AI.

Apple is falling 0.4% ahead of its latest event, which is expected to reveal the new lineup of iPhones, including a thinner model, which could be a precursor to a folding phone next year.

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis

The Nasdaq has risen above the falling trendline resistance, approaching its record high. Buyers will need to rise above 23,970 to create a higher high and look to blue skies above. Support is at 23,500, the falling trendline support—a break below 23,000 creates a lower low.

FX markets – USD falls, GBP/USD rises

The USD is falling as markets continue digesting Friday's weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payroll report, which has cemented expectations for a Fed rate cut this month.

The EUR/USD is Unchanged against the US dollar after paring early gains. The economic calendar is quiet, so attention turns to the ECB rate decision this week, where the ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged. With the Fed expected to cut next week, this could highlight the central bank's monetary policy divergence, offering support in the medium term to the pair.

The GBP/USD is rising amid a weaker U.S. dollar and as UK shoppers showed signs of resilience in August. According to data from the BRC, spending at larger retail chains increased by 3.1% year on year after a 2.5% increase in July. The data comes after stronger-than-expected UK retail sales last week.

Oil rises on Russia oil sanction worries & despite OPEC+ output increase

Oil prices have been rising for three straight days following modest OPEC+ production increases and on expectations that China could continue stockpiling oil at a time when new sanctions on Russia may be coming.

Eight members of OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to lift output from October by 137,000 barrels per day. This was lower than the 550,000 increase in August and September.

This modest increase comes at a time when China, according to data, has been buying around 0.5 million barrels per day towards stockpiling and is expected to continue at a similar rate into next year.

Speculation of more sanctions on Russia after Moscow orchestrated the largest air attack on Ukraine so far. President Trump has threatened that he's ready to move to a second phase of restrictions, which could involve efforts to diminish Russian oil supply on the global markets.