S&P 500 Forecast: SPX flat after TSLA, GOOGL earnings
Stocks are set to open mixed, with the Nasdaq rising, the S&P 500 flat, and the Dow Jones is set to open lower, as investors digest Tesla and Alphabet results, trade developments, and ahead of PMI data.
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US futures
Dow futures -0.75%, S&P futures 0.02% & Nasdaq futures 0.14%
In Europe
FTSE 0.79% & DAX 0.19%
- Stocks mixed with trade, earnings, and data in focus
- Hopes of an EU-US trade deal grow
- Tesla falls after earnings, Alphabet rises
- Oil rises on trade deal optimism, inventory draw
Tesla falls, Alphabet rises after earnings
Stocks are set to open mixed, with the Nasdaq rising, the S&P 500 flat, and the Dow Jones is set to open lower, as investors digest Tesla and Alphabet results, trade developments, and ahead of PMI data.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq reached record closes on Wednesday as investors cheered reports of a breakthrough in trade talks between the United States and the European Union. A deal between the two sides appears to be within reach ahead of the August 1st deadline, with expectations of 15% import tariffs on EU goods entering the US.
This comes after President Trump announced a deal with Japan on Tuesday, cutting tariffs to just 15%. Market confidence is improving that the worst of Trump's trade threats could be over.
Investors will be monitoring developments after President Trump announced he will be visiting the Federal Reserve later today. The visit comes after Trump has regularly criticised Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates quickly enough.
To leave interest rates unchanged at next week's meeting with a 60% probability of a September rate cut.
Data today showed that US jobless claims were lower than expected at 217,000, down from 235,000, highlighting the resilience of the job market. US PMI data will be released later and could provide further insight into the health of the US economy.
Corporate news
Tesla is falling 6% premarket after the EV maker reported its second consecutive quarter of declining car sales. Tesla missed on both the top and bottom lines, as EV revenue fell 16% year-over-year to $ 16.7 billion. CEO Elon Musk warns that Tesla may face a few rough quarters ahead due to the expiry of federal electric vehicle tax credits.
Google's parent company, Alphabet, is rising premarket after reporting Q2 results that beat expectations for both revenue and earnings. The tech giant has lifted its capital expenditure forecast for 2025 to $85 billion, driven by strong and growing demand for cloud products and services. Growth of 14% year over year, 10.9% expected.
S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis
The S&P 500 has risen to above 6300 to fresh record highs. The price holds above its rising trendline, although the RSI is in overbought territory, so buyers should be cautious. Having surpassed 6350, 6400 is the next logical level for bulls to target. On the downside, immediate support is at 6,300, and a fall below 6,200 could open the door to 6,150, the February high.
FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD falls
The USD is rising, recovering from a two-week low and snapping a four-day losing run. The USD is recovering on trade optimism after recent reports and announcements. However, concerns over Fed independence could limit the upside.
The EUR/USD is falling amid a stronger USD as investors weigh the prospects of an EU-U.S. trade deal, stronger-than-expected PMI data, and the ECB's decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 2%. ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak shortly.
The GBP/USD is falling amid a stronger U.S. dollar following the release of UK PMI data, which was weaker than expected, indicating that the economy is losing momentum. The composite PMI, considered a good gauge for business activity, fell to 51 from 52, a modest increase in the manufacturing PMI, failed to offset a slowdown in growth in services activity.
Oil rises on trade deal optimism, inventory draw
Oil prices are rising over 1%, boosted by US trade deal optimism and a larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories.
The EU and the US are moving towards a trade agreement, with news that a deal between the US and Japan is boosting sentiment, as well as the outlook for oil flow.
Meanwhile, on the supply side, the EIA inventory data showed that US crude stockpiles fell by 3.2 million barrels to 419 million barrels, which is larger than the 1.6 million barrel draw forecast.
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