Dow Jones

Stocks started to shake last week and there was even a hint of this in the prior week. The question now is whether we’re at the point where buyers may abandon pullbacks as get closer to mid-term elections.

Recent trading sessions have become increasingly relevant for the Dow Jones, as the index has started to regain bullish momentum heading into the end of the week. Over the last three sessions, the DJIA has advanced by more than 0.6%, allowing buying pressure to regain prominence and raising the possibility of a more consistent short-term recovery.

US index futures rebounded in the first half of Wednesday’s session, along with European indices ahead of the release of US CPI. Some slightly dovish remarks from the Fed’s Williams seem to have helped sentiment a little, but whether those comments will be backed by data remains to be seen. While slightly hotter than expected inflation data shouldn’t be enough for markets to price in an October Fed hike with more than a coin flip probability, it can nonetheless reinforce expectations of further tightening later in the year.

U.S. stocks are rising on Friday as oil prices ease on signs of reduced Middle East supply risks, although the telecom sector remains under pressure following SpaceX’s acquisition deal.

The global equity markets remain under pressure and with oil surging higher again this week, we have even more reason to remain cautious. Already, the S&P and Nasdaq were running support from only a handful of hyperscalers and AI stocks. But even these indices have started to take notice of the deteriorating market breadth and global indices. Still, for me, the ongoing weakness is becoming more evident in the Dow and the small-cap Russell 2000 indices, and as such I will continuing watching these markets closely to provide a more accurate signal about the health of the stock markets.

Recent trading sessions have begun to highlight a clear lack of direction around Dow Jones price action. This can be seen in the performance of the last three sessions, where the index has posted a modest decline of approximately 0.2%, reflecting the absence of a consistent directional bias and a growing sense of caution across the market.

U.S. stocks have opened mixed on Monday as investors await fresh clues on the outlook for interest rates while weighing elevated Treasury yields and oil prices.

The Dow Jones support breakdown shows rising bond yields and rate hike bets hitting U.S. stocks while tech giants prop up the Nasdaq.

When looking at the major tech-heavy US indices like the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100, you wouldn’t think that the stock market is particularly weak. Yet, beneath the surface, the market is far from healthy right now. Investors are evidently just piling into the big tech and AI names, and as a result, market breadth is deteriorating. Other indices like the small cap Russell 2000 and the Dow Jones are starting to reflect that weakness.

Nasdaq strength contrasts with mounting Dow pressure as rising Treasury yields raise the stakes for stocks heading into the monthly close.

There's still an open door for a melt-up in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq but the Dow and Russell 2000 are looking more vulnerable, and until calm hits the Treasuries market there's a higher probability for volatility. The big question is whether that's a next quarter theme or not.

GBP/USD and the Dow test key support levels as rising Treasury yields, Fed rate-hike expectations and oversold momentum increase reversal risks.