Indices Weekly Outlook

A failed S&P breakout and looming Nasdaq support test raise the stakes for next week’s Fed decision and October’s monthly close.

Stocks started to shake last week and there was even a hint of this in the prior week. The question now is whether we’re at the point where buyers may abandon pullbacks as get closer to mid-term elections.

Global indices managed to bounce back towards the end of the week as risk mood improved following Thursday’s drop in bond yields and a slight decline in oil prices. But by late Friday afternoon, oil prices had made back most of Thursday’s drop and the bond markets remained under some pressure as European bourses closed for trading.

Nasdaq strength contrasts with mounting Dow pressure as rising Treasury yields raise the stakes for stocks heading into the monthly close.

The response to the rate hike was a strong Thursday outing but ever since Kevin Warsh took over atop the Fed there’s been a shift in equity markets.

A hawkish Fed and 10-Year Notes on the verge of a push above 5%, yet stocks have so far shrugged off that fear. But can it continue?

The S&P 500 fell on Friday to post a flat close on the week. Rising yields and elevated oil prices reminded investors that the macro backdrop is turning challenging. Friday’s US jobs report raised the pressure on the Fed to hike as the report was considerably stronger than expected. All the attention will be on inflation data in this shortened week for US investors, plus the usual suspects of oil and bond yields, ahead of the FOMC rate decision in the following week.

S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow test key technical levels as momentum fades, raising the risk of a deeper correction heading into a pivotal week.

Is it a bubble or just a mania? While AI holds a lot of promise the valuations are becoming untethered from historical norms but that doesn’t necessarily mean that prices need to come down.

Major U.S. indices enter Fed week at pivotal technical levels as weakening momentum raises the stakes for the next breakout.

The Trump Pump has continued for much of the past three months but the focus for next week shifts to revenue potential from AI and tech leadership with Google and Tesla reporting earnings next Wednesday.

SPX just finished its strongest month since 2020 when Covid stimulus was still fueling markets, and buyers continue to show an insatiable appetite for risk despite several dark clouds on the horizon.