
USD/CHF forecast: Bullish wedge keeps upside in focus ahead of payrolls
A bullish wedge keeps upside in focus, but markets may be more sensitive to weak US labour market data than another upside payrolls surprise.
Stay in step with market opportunities and get insights, actionable trade ideas and dedicated support.

A bullish wedge keeps upside in focus, but markets may be more sensitive to weak US labour market data than another upside payrolls surprise.

A shock Swiss CPI print has markets dusting off negative-rate scenarios for the SNB, just as widening U.S.–Swiss yield spreads propel USD/CHF higher.
Over the last two trading sessions, USD/CHF has shown a variation of just 0.4%, reflecting a clear neutral bias after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate decision.
USD/CHF may face increased volatility as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to deliver another 25bp rate-cut.
Deflation, a surging franc, and limited meeting windows all point to the SNB potentially doing more than markets expect this week—could a return to negative rates be the shock that jolts USD/CHF from recent lows?
Trades want to sell the USD, but that it causing a headache for the SNB who want a lower Swiss franc. And Some already estimate that the central bank is active in the FX market to defend the USD/CHF at 0.84. And that puts the SNB interest meeting, US GDP, PMI, PCE reports in focus, alongside the slew Fed members hitting the wires.
Futures traders may be heavily net-short Swiss Francs, but the rapid rise of the currency this week ahead of the SNB meeting suggests some are wary of being caught short a less-dovish central bank.
For the first week in a while, US data is not dominating the market focus. With a key US inflation report and FOMC meeting freshly in the rear-view mirror, markets can now shift attention to domestic data. Three top-tier central banks meet next week, including the RBA on Tuesday, followed by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Bank of England (BOE) on Thursday. UK inflation data on Wednesday could set the tone for what to expect at future BOE meetings. Flash PMIs across Asia, Europe, and the US then close out the week, which can shape expectations for future growth and inflationary pressures.
It is a monster week ahead for traders with a key focus on central banks, with BOJ, Fed, BOE and RBA meetings on the menu.
We have arguably seen the biggest central bank surprise of the week, with the Fed’s dovish pivot. But that may also influence the tone of the SNB, BOE and ECB at their meetings today – even if only to a degree.
Four major central banks meeting next week including the FOMC, ECB, BOE and SNB. While no changes are expected, traders want to know who may be the first to cut rates.
The BOE and SNB are expected to hike by 25bp today. But a 50bp hike may not be out of the question, which puts GBP/USD and USD/CHF firmly onto trader's radars today.
With the FOMC meeting in the rear view mirror, the focus now shifts to Europe where the UK and SNB announce their interest rate decisions.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.