US Dollar soars on Russian invasion
Look for the technical levels to see where price may pause or even reverse!
Share this:
The US Dollar took to flight as Russia moved swiftly and aggressively into Ukraine. The US Dollar is looked at as a safe haven currency, as many investors believe that the US government will support the dollar under any circumstances. (The Japanese Yen and Gold are other safe havens.) As the US Dollar moves higher, many of its counter currencies are moving lower. Below are a few of the big movers today and levels where price may pause or even reverse.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has been moving lower since the potential invasion was first announced on February 11th. The pair was trading above 1.1400 in that day. Yesterday, we pointed out the long upper wicks on the daily timeframe, which indicated that buyers were in early in the session, only to be overtaken by sellers later in the day. This was an indication that prices may move lower. EUR/USD sliced though November 24th lows at 1.1186 and is closing in on the January 28th los of 1.1121. Below there is long term horizontal support at 1.1020. The bottom trendline of the channel currently in crosses near 1.0950. (Note that often when there is a false breakout above the channel, as we saw earlier this month, price will often move to test the other side of the channel).
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
GBP/USD
Except for a three-day period in mid-January, GBP/USD has been trading below a trendline dating to July 30th, 2021. Today, price is down over 200 pips as the pair sliced through the 50 Day Moving Average at 1.3513 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the December 8th, 2021 lows to the January 13th highs. GBP/USD is currently sitting below the January 27th lows at 1.3357. With such a big move on the day, one must consider that the pair may be ready for a bounce (at least short term). Horizontal support is at 1.3278 and then the December 8th lows of 1.3160. If price breaks below there, it can easily fall to the psychological round number resistance of 1.3000.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
USD/CAD
USD/CAD is following the US Dollar higher. As we wrote about last week, with the price of crude moving higher, USD/CAD should have been moving lower. But it wasn’t! Therefore, it could follow the DXY higher. This is what happened today. Now, what happens when Crude Oil moves lower? What happens if the BOC is less hawkish than expected next week? The pair could move even higher! Resistance isn’t until 1.2963, which is the highs from December 20th, 2021. Above there, 1.2990 and 1.3122 are both long-term horizontal resistance levels.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
With Russia invading Ukraine on a massive scale today, the US Dollar went bid as traders moved into the safe haven currency. However, there must be an area where price has moved too far, too fast, in some of the US Dollar pairs. Look for the technical levels to see where price may pause or even reverse!
The US Dollar took to flight as Russia moved swiftly and aggressively into Ukraine. The US Dollar is looked at as a safe haven currency, as many investors believe that the US government will support the dollar under any circumstances. (The Japanese Yen and Gold are other safe havens.) As the US Dollar moves higher, many of its counter currencies are moving lower. Below are a few of the big movers today and levels where price may pause or even reverse.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has been moving lower since the potential invasion was first announced on February 11th. The pair was trading above 1.1400 in that day. Yesterday, we pointed out the long upper wicks on the daily timeframe, which indicated that buyers were in early in the session, only to be overtaken by sellers later in the day. This was an indication that prices may move lower. EUR/USD sliced though November 24th lows at 1.1186 and is closing in on the January 28th los of 1.1121. Below there is long term horizontal support at 1.1020. The bottom trendline of the channel currently in crosses near 1.0950. (Note that often when there is a false breakout above the channel, as we saw earlier this month, price will often move to test the other side of the channel).
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
Trade EUR/USD now: Login or Open a new account!
• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
GBP/USD
Except for a three-day period in mid-January, GBP/USD has been trading below a trendline dating to July 30th, 2021. Today, price is down over 200 pips as the pair sliced through the 50 Day Moving Average at 1.3513 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the December 8th, 2021 lows to the January 13th highs. GBP/USD is currently sitting below the January 27th lows at 1.3357. With such a big move on the day, one must consider that the pair may be ready for a bounce (at least short term). Horizontal support is at 1.3278 and then the December 8th lows of 1.3160. If price breaks below there, it can easily fall to the psychological round number resistance of 1.3000.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
Trade GBP/USD now: Login or Open a new account!
• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
USD/CAD
USD/CAD is following the US Dollar higher. As we wrote about last week, with the price of crude moving higher, USD/CAD should have been moving lower. But it wasn’t! Therefore, it could follow the DXY higher. This is what happened today. Now, what happens when Crude Oil moves lower? What happens if the BOC is less hawkish than expected next week? The pair could move even higher! Resistance isn’t until 1.2963, which is the highs from December 20th, 2021. Above there, 1.2990 and 1.3122 are both long-term horizontal resistance levels.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
Trade USD/CAD now: Login or Open a new account!
• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
With Russia invading Ukraine on a massive scale today, the US Dollar went bid as traders moved into the safe haven currency. However, there must be an area where price has moved too far, too fast, in some of the US Dollar pairs. Look for the technical levels to see where price may pause or even reverse!
Learn more about forex trading opportunities.
Latest market news
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
US Core PCE Preview: Stale or Significant for the Fed
Core PCE inflation takes center stage Wednesday, with traders watching for signs of renewed price pressure and clues on whether the Fed could hike again in October.
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Four-Week Slide Nears Critical Uptrend Support 9 29 2026
Aussie momentum has deteriorated sharply into quarter-end, with inflation, Core PCE and NFP on tap as AUD/USD closes in on a pivotal technical threshold.
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Tumbles Towards Yearly Low as Daily RSI Goes Oversold
EUR/USD has been hit hard in the final month of the quarter as USD strength has shown up in a big way. With the pair set to challenge its yearly low as RSI has pushed into oversold territory, is there a chance for a pullback with some big headline risk hitting in the US over the next few days?
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.