ASX 200 Market Outlook: CBA Looks Set to Bounce, Make or Break for BXB

The ASX 200 continues to consolidate ahead of the FOMC meeting, with tight ranges and falling implied volatility helping to stabilise sentiment. Seasonal trends typically strengthen from mid-December, adding another layer of support for local equities. Today’s focus is on two key index heavyweights — Commonwealth Bank, which looks positioned for a short-term rebound, and Brambles, which is sitting at a critical make-or-break support zone.

 

View related analysis:

• ASX 200 Market Outlook: All Sectors See Red After Hawkish RBA Hold
• ASX 200 Market Outlook: Can Santa’s Rally Help the ASX This December?
• S&P 500 Seasonality: How Santa's Rally Across Wall Street Stacks Up
• ASX 200 Market Outlook: Santa’s Rally Arrives Early for Materials

 

ASX 200 Market Outlook: CBA Bounce Builds as BXB Hits Key Support

ASX 200 Market Snapshot

• The ASX 200 cash index stabilised ahead of the FOMC meeting, forming a doji on Wednesday.
• Eight of eleven sectors declined, led by Telecoms (XTJ) and Industrials (XNJ), while Consumer Staples (XSJ) and Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) outperformed.
• Daily ranges have remained unusually tight for seven sessions as the index holds within a sideways consolidation.
• A stronger lead from Wall Street should see the ASX open higher today.
• Implied volatility continues to drift lower, which may favour further gains — particularly as we approach mid-December when “Santa rally” seasonality typically strengthens.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - source: ASX, LSEG

 

 

Brambles (BXB) Technical Analysis

The bullish bias I outlined in November worked for a while, but momentum has since turned lower. The daily chart shows BXB still trading within a bearish channel, although a cluster of support is now in play and could fuel a short-term countertrend bounce.

A small rickshaw man doji formed on Wednesday around key support, including the August VPOC (22.85), a high-volume node at 22.90 and the 200-day averages. With volume rising for a fourth straight session and now above average, it hints at a shift from bearish to bullish control given the narrow trading range and flat close.

A break above 23.16 would strengthen the case for a countertrend move, targeting the monthly pivot near 24 or the upper boundary of the bearish channel.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView

 

 

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Technical Analysis

With the RBA turning more hawkish and the dominant trend still lower, my medium-term bias remains for CBA to eventually break below 150. Such a move would likely exert pressure on the broader ASX 200. For now, though, CBA continues to hold above support, and with SPI futures firmer overnight, the near-term bias has shifted modestly bullish.

A double bottom has formed around the 150 handle and the 20-month EMA. Price remains range-bound, but the structure leans more toward quiet accumulation than distribution.

Bulls may look for a move towards 160 in the near term. A break above 160 would draw focus towards the 200-day EMA (165.67), the February low and a nearby high-volume node.

Further out, downside risk remains towards at least 140.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView

 

ASX 200 Futures (SPI 200) Technical Analysis

A strong lead from Wall Street following the latest Fed cut pushed ASX 200 futures higher overnight. Price has reclaimed the 200-day SMA and sits just above the 200-day EMA. A countertrend move toward 8700 is possible before sellers return. As we move into mid-December, the probability of a seasonal Santa rally increases.

Historically, the ASX outperforms Wall Street in December on both median and average returns. Should this repeat, bulls may consider 8570, 8780 and 8840 as viable upside levels.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView, ASX SPI 200 Index Futures

 

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-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge