Bitcoin Forecast: BTC Recovery Accelerates After U.S. Elections

The trading week has started on a relatively positive note for Bitcoin in the short term. The leading cryptocurrency has regained buying momentum and is up more than 3.5% during the session, reflecting a meaningful improvement in demand.

This recovery is largely being driven by renewed risk appetite following the U.S. elections and a weaker U.S. dollar, one of Bitcoin's main alternative markets for much of the year. As a result, the cryptocurrency has managed to recover ground consistently and move back toward the important psychological level of $80,000, a dynamic that could continue supporting buying pressure in the coming sessions.

Is Demand Becoming Relevant Again?

One of the most important developments in recent sessions has been the outcome of the U.S. congressional elections. Beyond the political implications for the Trump administration, markets appear to be moving past part of the uncertainty that surrounded the electoral process, a situation that has begun to support a gradual recovery in appetite for risk assets.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar has entered a new phase of weakness. Part of this move reflects a recent moderation in bond market yields, which has reduced the relative attractiveness of the USD in the short term. This can be seen in the behavior of the DXY Index, which measures the dollar's strength against its major peers and has fallen back toward the 101-point area, highlighting a relatively consistent loss of momentum in the U.S. currency.

What makes this development particularly relevant is that, throughout much of 2026, the dollar acted as an important alternative market to risk assets such as Bitcoin. At various points during the year, USD strength limited BTC's ability to sustain a meaningful recovery. Over the last few sessions, however, the opposite scenario appears to be taking shape. As the dollar loses some of its appeal as a liquidity haven, Bitcoin has found room to attract renewed investor interest and improve its short-term performance.

Source: TradingEconomics

This dynamic has also been accompanied by a notable recovery in market activity following the election results. Recent liquidation data show movements of nearly $200 million in recent hours, but the most important detail is that the majority of those liquidations have come from short positions.

This situation typically reflects a return of demand to the market, forcing the closure of bearish positions that had anticipated a continuation of the recent weakness. In addition, the reduction in election-related uncertainty appears to be supporting a gradual improvement in risk appetite, a backdrop that coincides with a weaker dollar and has contributed to a recovery in buying activity around BTC over recent sessions.

Source: Coinglass

With all of this in mind, the election outcome has created a more favorable environment for demand to recover within the cryptocurrency market. The combination of lower political uncertainty and a weaker dollar has helped Bitcoin regain traction in the short term, a development that could continue supporting buying pressure in the coming sessions. However, it remains important to highlight that it is still premature to speak about a long-term structural recovery, and a more consistent demand environment will be needed before confirming a more meaningful shift in the broader trend.

 

Is Confidence Becoming More Stable?

It is also worth monitoring the Fear & Greed Index for the cryptocurrency market. The indicator currently stands near 41 points, returning to a neutral zone after moving out of the fear territory observed in previous sessions.

This reading suggests that market confidence is beginning to recover gradually compared with the levels seen a few weeks ago and reflects an improvement in overall risk perception within the sector.

Source: Coinmarketcap

The evolution of this indicator remains important because it serves as a gauge of investor confidence within the crypto market. As the index continues to recover, it may begin to signal that market conditions are once again becoming favorable enough to support a more stable demand environment. For this reason, improving sentiment could continue supporting buying pressure around BTC during the coming sessions.

 

Bitcoin Technical Forecast

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• The bullish trend continues to hold: For several months, Bitcoin's price action has supported the development of an important long-term bullish trendline that remains the dominant technical structure on the daily chart. As long as the recent recovery remains strong enough to push price back toward key resistance levels, this trendline could continue acting as the primary technical reference during the weeks ahead.
   
• RSI: The RSI remains near the 50 neutral level, a reading that suggests a relatively balanced environment in short-term momentum. While demand has improved recently, the neutral phase observed over recent weeks has not yet disappeared entirely.
   
• MACD: A similar picture can be seen in the MACD, whose histogram continues to fluctuate near the 0 neutral line. This reading also reflects balance in short-term moving average strength and supports the idea that a degree of indecision remains present within recent price action.
   

Key Levels:

• 86,800 – Key Resistance: A major high observed over recent weeks and the most important upside barrier on the chart. Price action consolidating above this area could restore bullish momentum and support a more consistent reactivation of the broader uptrend as the dominant technical structure in the weeks ahead.
   
• 1,000 – Near-Term Barrier: A level that coincides with recent retracements and also develops near the 50-period simple moving average. It currently represents an important equilibrium area on the daily chart and, as long as price continues to trade near this zone without breaking away decisively, the market may continue to reflect a relatively stable phase of indecision.
   
• 76,450 – Key Support: The most important low area of recent months and the main downside barrier on the chart. Price action returning toward this level could begin to threaten the dominant bullish structure, favor a more meaningful shift in the daily chart, and create room for a more consistent bearish bias to emerge in the weeks ahead.

 

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25