Bitcoin Outlook: BTC holds above 70k as market stability returns

The start of the week has been positive for Bitcoin price action in the short term, as the cryptocurrency has posted a gain of more than 3.5% during the session, attempting to sustain a consistent recovery despite ongoing international uncertainty stemming from weaker negotiations in the Middle East.

At the same time, activity within the BTC network remains stable in the short term, suggesting that appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin has not fully disappeared. In this context, as long as no major risk event materializes, buying pressure could continue to be part of BTC price action in the coming sessions.

Demand activity shows signs of resilience

Recent sessions have been particularly active in the global context, as exchanges of statements between the United States and Iran have begun to reflect weakness in ongoing negotiations. While this initially raised concerns in the markets, there has not yet been a significant escalation capable of materially impacting risk appetite in assets such as Bitcoin.

This dynamic is reflected in network activity indicators. The Open Interest indicator, which measures total open positions in the market, has shown a notable increase in recent sessions, rising toward $24 billion and approaching monthly highs.

This increase suggests that the number of open positions has been growing steadily, and when combined with price action, indicates that the market is currently being driven primarily by short-term long positions. This reinforces the idea that demand remains active, even amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Source: CryptoQuant

This behavior is particularly relevant, as it shows that despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, the market has not interpreted the situation as a strong enough risk to exit risk assets. As long as this dynamic of activity and demand continues, buying pressure is likely to remain relevant, at least until a more significant risk event emerges.

 

Confidence remains largely unaffected

The crypto Fear and Greed Index has not shown any meaningful decline in recent days. Instead, it has remained stable around the 50 level, within the “neutral” zone, without reflecting a deterioration in market confidence.

Source: Coinmarketcap

This suggests that confidence remains relatively stable, despite ongoing developments in the Middle East. The lack of deterioration in sentiment indicates that the market is not currently pricing in a high-risk scenario in the short term.

In this context, stable confidence levels support continued demand. If the index does not fall back into the “fear” zone, buying pressure could remain present in BTC price action in the coming sessions.

 

Bitcoin Technical Outlook

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• Price continues to face a range-bound structure: Despite the recent recovery, bullish momentum is still not strong enough to break the sideways range between 75k and 64k. As long as price remains within this range, a clear directional move is unlikely in the short term.
   

• RSI: The RSI remains above the 50 level, suggesting that bullish momentum continues to be relevant over the last 14 sessions. If this behavior persists, it could continue to support short-term buying pressure.
   

• TRIX: The TRIX indicator is attempting to cross above line 0, which may suggest a potential shift in market structure. If confirmed, this could indicate the development of a more consistent bullish bias in price action.
   

Key levels:

• 75,000 – Key resistance: The upper boundary of the current range. A break above this level could trigger a more relevant bullish bias, potentially challenging the longer-term downtrend.
   
• 70,000 – Near-term barrier: A neutral level aligned with the 50-period moving average. Price action around this level could continue to reinforce the range-bound structure in the short term.
   
• 64,000 – Key support: A recent low and the main downside barrier. A sustained break below this level could reactivate a dominant bearish bias and extend the downtrend.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25