Bitcoin presses a major breakout level as Iran conflict grips markets

• Bitcoin approaching major resistance
• Correlations tied to broader risk drivers
• Momentum stabilising as price coils

Summary

Bitcoin may be shaping up as one of the cleaner ways to express views on developments surrounding the Iran conflict, based on the combination of recent correlation patterns and where the price sits on the charts.

Source: TradingView

Looking at correlations over the past five days above, Bitcoin futures have traded closely alongside Nasdaq 100 futures while showing strong inverse relationships with the US dollar and Treasury yields. All are sensitive to shifts in geopolitical risk tied to the conflict, suggesting Bitcoin may respond quickly should sentiment swing sharply in either direction.

Against that backdrop, the price is now pressing up against a technically important level at $74,500.

Key level returns to the spotlight

Source: TradingView

The monthly chart on the right highlights just how significant it has been previously for longer-term directional risks. It capped the price for an extended period in 2024 before the eventual breakout around the US presidential election. The level was later tested and held during the April 2025 Liberation Day risk rout, helping launch the rally that ultimately delivered fresh record highs.

On the daily chart on the left, while the broader trend from last year’s highs remains lower, price action since February carries the hallmarks of an ascending triangle, suggesting pressure may be building for an eventual break higher. The market has probed $74,500 several times in March with bears repeatedly defending the level, but the pullbacks have become increasingly shallow.

Momentum signals are also stabilising. RSI (14) has pushed back above 50 and is trending higher, while MACD is rapidly approaching positive territory. A crossover would provide a mild bullish confirmation.

Should developments in the conflict deliver a positive surprise for risk appetite, it could provide the catalyst for a meaningful topside break.

A break and close above $74,500 would likely see bulls target the 50-day moving average first. Beyond that, $80,700 stands out as the next logical objective, marking the intersection of where Bitcoin bottomed last November with the downtrend from the record highs. An unfilled gap from $81,210 may also act as a magnet to see the latter taken out. 

However, failure to clear $74,500 could see bears set fresh shorts, targeting a retest of the February uptrend. The February 24 low at $62,600 stands out as the next meaningful downside reference before the February swing low of $60,000.

Notably, volumes have generally been stronger on advances than declines, hinting that upside pressure may be quietly building despite the broader downtrend and still-negative slope in key moving averages.