British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Rebound Challenges Bear Trend

British Pound Technical Outlook: GBP/USD Short-Term Trade Levels

• GBP/USD rebounded from a major support zone after falling more than 2% from the June high.
• The recovery is testing initial resistance with weekly range taking shape just below- broader downtrend remains intact for now.
• A break above near-term resistance would strengthen the case for a larger recovery.
• Break below support would threaten another leg lower toward key downside targets.
• Resistance 1.3465/74 (key), 1.3522, 1.3572/93- Support ~1.3422, 1.3350 (key), 1.3266

GBP/USD is attempting to recover after defending a major support confluence near the yearly low. The rebound has eased immediate downside pressure, but Sterling remains trapped within a broader bearish structure following the sharp plunge from the June highs. With the weekly range now taking shape and key economic data on tap later this week, traders are watching to see whether buyers can build on the recovery or if the broader downtrend reasserts itself. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last British Pound Short-term Outlook, we noted that GBP/USD was trading just below, “pivotal resistance at the yearly open with the weekly and monthly opening ranges now taking shape. Look for the breakout to offer guidance in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.3350 IF price is heading higher on this stretch…” Sterling broke lower three-days later before rebounding off the May lows-  a retest of resistance failed last week with a break below the monthly range lows fueling a decline of more than 2.3% off the June high.

GBP/USD rebounded off support confluent support on Friday at the yearly low close and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance at 1.3187/94. Note that the lower parallel converges on this threshold and further highlights the technical significance of this zone near-term. The focus is on a reaction off this mark with the broader outlook still weighted to the downside while below the median line.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD 120min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Sterling price action shows GBP/USD rebounding off slope support last week with the recovery testing initial resistance today at the 25% parallel / 78.6% retracement of the March advance near 1.3266. The weekly range is taking shape below this level, and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead. A topside breach exposes the May low and the May low close at 1.3302/26- note that the median-line converges on this region into the close of the week, and a breach above would suggest a more significant low is in place. Subsequent resistance is eyed with the 200-day moving average (currently ~1.3421) with broader bearish invalidation steady at the yearly open at 1.3437.

A break lower from here still must contend with a key pivot zone at 1.3140/54- a region defined by the 2025 May & August lows and the 100% extension of the May decline. Losses below this threshold would threaten another bout of accelerated declines with the next major technical consideration seen at the 2024 July high and the September low-day close (LDC) at 1.3045 and the November LDC at 1.3021.

           

 

Bottom line: Sterling has rebounded off confluent downtrend support with the recovery testing initial slope resistance today. The weekly opening range is taking shape, and the focus is on a breakout for guidance. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.3326 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.3187 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.

Looking ahead, the focus shifts to the release of the UK Manufacturing and Services PMIs tomorrow, followed by Thursday's highly anticipated U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report—the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. After Chair Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target, the PCE data could play a pivotal role in shaping expectations for the policy outlook. Interest rate markets are currently pricing in a 74% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close for directional guidance. Review my latest British Pound Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

Key GBP/USD Economic Data Releases

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex