Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Bulls Eye Yearly High Breakout

Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels

USD/CAD has rallied more than 3% from the May lows and is now approaching the yearly highs.
Price is testing a major resistance zone that could determine the next phase of the advance.
A push through key resistance would validate a break of the yearly range and signal further upside- bulls vulnerable while below.
Event risk on tap: U.S. CPI & BoC rate decision on Wednesday.
Resistance 1.3967/83 (key), 1.4035, 1.4138/51 – Support ~1.3802, 1.3725/33 (key), 1.3617

USD/CAD has extended its recovery from the May lows and is now within striking distance of a major resistance zone near the yearly highs. The advance has strengthened the broader technical outlook and brings the prospect of a breakout of the yearly range into focus. With key U.S. inflation data and the Bank of Canada rate decision on tap this week, the pair is approaching a critical inflection point that could determine whether the rally accelerates or stalls at resistance. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CAD was, “attempting to validate a break above a key pivot zone, and the focus is on the weekly close with respect to 1.3725/33. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.3617 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3808 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.” USD/CAD closed above 1.38 later that week with the subsequent rally now extending more than 3% off the May low. The advance takes price within striking distance of a pivotal resistance zone at 1.3967/83- a region defied by the yearly (March) swing high, the 2022 high and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline. The focus is on a reaction off this zone IF reached with a topside breach / weekly close above needed to validate a breakout of the yearly opening range and fuel the next phase of the rally.

Initial weekly support now rests back with the 52-week moving average near ~1.3803 and is backed by key support at the yearly open and the 2025 low-week close (LWC) at 1.3725/33. Losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger reversal is underway with subsequent support seen at the yearly low-week close (LWC) at 1.3617 and the low- close at 1.3563.

A sustained breach above this key pivot zone exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 100% extension of the January advance at 1.4036 and the 50% retracement and the February 2025 swing low at 1.4138/51.

Bottom line: USD/CAD is testing pivotal resistance at the yearly range high early in the month and while the medium-term outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable below this threshold. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to the yearly moving average IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3983 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we get the release of key U.S. inflation data and the Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday. On the heels of last week’s strong NFP report, the focus once again shifts to the other side of the Fed’s dual mandate with the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) representing the last major data point we get ahead of next week’s highly anticipated FOMC meeting. Traders continue to assess the impact of higher energy prices with Fed Fund Futures now pricing a 74% probability that the central bank will have to hike rates by at least 25 basis points this year. This shift has offered a tailwind to the USD advance, and a stronger-than-expected pace of price growth could further fuel this rally.

Meanwhile, the BoC is widely expected to hold rates later this week, and the commentary, as always, will be key. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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