Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Collapse Breaks July Uptrend- Risk for Further Weakness

Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels

USD/CAD plummets following strong Canada employment report, breaking July uptrend.
The breakdown keeps the outlook tilted to the downside, with momentum dropping to its weakest levels since August and more significant support now in view
Major event risk ahead with Bank of Canada and FOMC interest rate decisions on tap next week
Resistance 1.3899, 1.3978, 1.4010/15 (key)– Support 1.3734/69 (key), 1.3669, 1.3583

The Canadian Dollar offensive accelerated this week, with USD/CAD plunging for a second straight week as a strong Canada jobs report underscored the widening interest rate disparity. The selloff fueled a decisive break below multi-month uptrend support, shifting the broader bias lower into the weekly close. Traders will now look to see whether price can stabilize into nearby support or continues to unwind ahead of next week’s Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve rate decisions. The reaction at these levels will be pivotal as the pair enters a high-volatility stretch into year-end. Battle lines are drawn on the USD/CAD weekly technical chart.

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Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CAD was, “bound within the November range, just above support. Look for a breakout of last week’s range in the days ahead for guidance. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to 1.3978 IF price is heading higher on this stretch…” The range broke lower the following week with price collapsing today on the heels of a stronger than expected Canada employment report. The decline marks the largest single-day, and single-week declines since May, with USD/CAD plunging nearly 2.2% off the November highs.

A break of the July uptrend highlights the threat for further weakness in the days ahead with more significant support now in view at 1.3734/69- a region defined by the 2025 low-week close (LWC) and the 61.8% retracement of the advance off the yearly lows. Note that the lower parallel of the June pitchfork converges on this threshold into the close of the year- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. A break / weekly close below this critical range would be needed suggest a more significant high is place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 78.6% retracement at 1.3669 and the 2025 close-low at 1.3583.

Initial resistance is now eyed with the 2023 high at 1.3899 and is backed by the 2022 swing high at 1.3978- note that former channel support converges on this threshold over the next few weeks. Ultimately, a breach / weekly close above the 52-week moving average near this week’s high at 1.4010/15 would be needed to mark uptrend resumption (bearish invalidation). Critical resistance remains with the 50% retracement of the yearly range and the February LWC at 1.4167/84.

Bottom line: USD/CAD remains vulnerable after plunging through multi-month uptrend support with weekly momentum dropping to the lowest levels since August. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to the 1.39-handle IF price is heading lower on this stretch- look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards 1.3734.

Keep in mind we get the release of both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve interest rate decisions next week. The BoC is widely expected to leave rates unchanged with the recent labor data fueling speculation that the central bank may look to hike in 2026. Fed Fund Futures are nearly fully priced for a cut next week (88%) with the next rate cut expected in March. The focus will be on the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, and the interest rate dot-plot will be critical as investors adjust the outlook for monetary policy heading into 2026. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. I’ll publish an updated Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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