CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open Account
✖

Crude oil outlook: WTI could rise further as traders eye MidEast situation

By :   Fawad Razaqzada , Market Analyst
October 16, 2023 6:00 PM
  • Crude oil outlook: Path of least resistance to the upside amid geopolitical risks
  • WTI hits resistance at $87, but downside could be limited
  • Friday’s large rally indication of things to come?

 

Following the 5% rise on Friday, crude oil prices gave back some of those gains on Monday. However, this could be a temporary respite before oil prices rise again.

 

Why have oil prices weakened?

 

As there was no further escalation in the Middle East crisis over the weekend, it is likely that traders who had established long speculative positions last week to take advantage of another potential gap, decided to move out of the way. This is one plausible explanation behind the oil price weakness observed on Monday.

 

Path of least resistance to the upside

 

But the path of least resistance is to the upside following that big upsurge, so don’t be surprised if the bullish trend were to resume on Tuesday. There is always the risk that the developments in the Middle East could draw in large oil-exporting nations, which may hurt oil production and thereby cause prices to rise. The big worry is if Iran gets involved. Iran has said that if Gaza operations continue there would be regional escalation in the conflict.

 

Until such a time that the situation de-escalates, oil prices should continue to find support on any short-term dips. Even then, the OPEC’s ongoing supply cuts means prices are unlikely to fall significantly anyway.

 

Crude oil outlook: WTI technical analysis

Source: TradingView.com

 

For WTI, the key support area to watch is around $84.10 to $85.45. This is the blue shaded area on my chart. Here, WTI had previously found strong resistance until Friday’s breakout. Once resistance, this area could very well turn into support, leading to another move higher. But if oil fails to hold support here, however, then we could be talking about low $80s again.

 

On the upside, resistance is seen in the region between $87.15 and $87.95, the previous support range. A break above this area could pave the way for a move towards September’s high at $94.63 and $95.00 next.

 

So, WTI is kind of stuck between two key technical ranges here and depending on the direction of the break, we could well see a sharp continuation in the direction of the break. 

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R

 

 

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as "FOREX.com") is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, FOREX.com does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date.


This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it. No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by FOREX.com or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.


The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although FOREX.com is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, FOREX.com does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.


CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company incorporated in England and Wales with UK Companies House number 05616586 and with its registered office at 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK, with FCA Register Number: 446717.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd. This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy. FOREX.com products and services are not intended for Belgium residents.

© FOREX.COM 2026