DAX, Gold Forecast: Two trades to watch

DAX rises modestly ahead of this week’s ECB rate decision & despite oil prices rising

The DAX, together with European markets, started the week on a stronger footing, despite a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices.

Investor attention remains focused on developments between the United States and Iran, where peace talks appear to have stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

As a result, oil prices have climbed to around $108 per barrel, extending gains from last week. The move higher in energy prices is feeding into inflation expectations and pushing bond yields up. Germany’s 10-year government bond yield has risen above 3%, while the US 10-year Treasury yield is also climbing, now above 4.3%.

Despite these headwinds, European equities have managed to turn higher. However, the situation remains a risk, particularly if tensions persist beyond mid-year. For now, markets appear to be pricing in the possibility that the disruption to energy prices will be temporary or contained.

On the data front, German consumer confidence has fallen to a three-year low, highlighting the pressure that high energy prices and a worsening inflation outlook are placing on households.

Looking ahead, attention will turn to central banks, with the European Central Bank due to report later this week. While policymakers are widely expected to keep rates on hold, investors will be watching closely for any hint of a potential move in June.

Overall, markets are navigating a complex mix of geopolitical risk, inflation pressures, and slowing growth, yet for now, equity momentum remains resilient.

DAX forecast – technical analysis

The DAX has recovered from the 21,860 level (the 2026 low), rising above both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs to reach a high of 24,800. From here, the price has eased back, finding support around 24,000, but it has failed to break above resistance at 24,400—also aligning with the rising trendline resistance dating back to April last year.

Holding above the 200-day SMA, combined with an RSI above 50, keeps buyers hopeful of further upside. A move above 24,400 and a break of 24,800 would create a higher high and extend the bullish move towards 25,000.

XAU/USD in wait-and-see mode ahead of central bank meetings

Gold is holding steady at the start of the week after falling 2.5% last week, ending a four-week winning streak. The price is consolidating around $4,700 as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach amid ongoing US–Iran developments and ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings.

Recent developments suggest that Iran has presented the US with a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with nuclear negotiations to follow at a later stage. However, the ongoing stalemate has kept oil prices elevated, now around $108 per barrel, raising inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that central banks may keep rates higher for longer—or even tighten further.

Major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are expected to keep rates unchanged. However, markets will be watching closely for any signals regarding inflation risks. In addition to the FOMC decision, US core PCE and GDP data are due later this week.

XAU/USD forecast - technical analysis

Gold continues to trade within a rising channel on the four-hour chart, although the price is currently below the 200-day SMA and testing the lower bound of the channel near $4,700 keeping bears in charge.

With the RSI below 50, sellers may look to break below $4,700 and then $4,650 (the April 10–12 lows). A break below this level could open the door to $4,500, followed by $4,370 (the late March low).

On the upside, buyers would need to reclaim the 200-day SMA around $4,750 and break above $4,800 to extend gains towards $4,890 (the April high). A move above this level would create a higher high and bring $5,000 back into focus.