Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout Faces a Defining Test

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• Gold has broken out of a multi-month consolidation pattern with XAU/USD rallying more than 9% from the yearly low.
• The advance is now confronting its first major technical resistance zone since the breakout.
• A sustained move through the yearly open would strengthen the case that a more significant trend reversal is underway.
• Near-term technical structure is constructive while above the July high-day close
• Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report could provide the catalyst for gold's next major directional move.
• Resistance 4305/19 (key), 4367, 4491-4533- Support 4165, 4074/98 (key), 4007

Gold enters the final trading day of the week with momentum firmly shifted in favor of the bulls after breaking decisively above a multi-month consolidation pattern. The breakout marks the strongest technical development since the March decline began, but the rally has now reached the first major resistance zone where buyers must prove they can sustain the advance. With the market pulling back from today's highs ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report, traders will be watching closely to see whether former resistance can transition into support and keep the broader recovery on track. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST and follow this setup throughout the week in the Opening Bell.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Short-term Outlook we noted that XAU/USD was, “attempting to stabilize after a nearly 30% decline from the record high, with XAU/USD rebounding from fresh yearly lows on building momentum divergence. The recovery has brought price back above a key pivot zone, but buyers still need to prove they can defend support and extend the rebound into a broader recovery.” Gold continued to straddle this pivot zone for nearly seven-weeks with a well-defined consolidation pattern finally breaking out yesterday.

The advance exhausted into the first major technical hurdle today at the 38.2% retracement of the April decline and the objective yearly open at 3405/19. Note that momentum has now extended to the highest levels since early-March with daily RSI trading just below the 60-threshold. The focus heading into tomorrow’s highly anticipated employment report is on this pullback from resistance and IF gold has indeed bottomed, losses should be limited in the days ahead.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within the confines of a proposed ascending pitchfork extending July / Aust low with the 75% parallel further highlighting immediate resistance at 4305/19. Price is testing the median-line now with subsequent support seen at the July high-day close (HDC) at 4165. Note that former consolidation resistance (red) converges on this level into the close of the week. Bullish invalidation is now set to the March low and the 61.8% extension of the March decline at 4074/98. The lower parallel converges on this zone tomorrow and losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant near-term high is in place and nullify this week’s breakout. Subsequent support rests with the yearly low-day close / July open at 4007. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

A topside breach / daily close above the yearly open would mark resumption of the near-term uptrend. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the May low at 4367 with the next major technical consideration seen at 4491-4533- a region defined by the 200-day moving average, the 61.8% retracement of the April decline, and the 2025 high-day close (HDC). Note that the upper parallels of both the near-term uptrend and the yearly downtrend (daily chart) converge on this level next week and a breach / weekly above these slopes would be needed to validate a larger, more meaningful trend reversal is underway in gold.

           

Bottom line: Gold broke out of multi-month consolidation pattern with rally testing the first major technical hurdle today. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 4165 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 4319 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

Attention now turns to tomorrow's highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report, the week's key macro event. The data will be closely watched for clues on the strength of the labor market and its implications for the Fed's policy outlook. A stronger-than-expected report would reinforce expectations for a restrictive policy stance and may curb the near-term advance in gold, while a softer reading could prompt markets to scale back rate-hike expectations. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for confirmation of the broader trend. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex