Gold Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Pressures Key Support Level

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels

Gold prices under pressure– bears threaten break of yearly uptrend
XAU/USD weekly / monthly range set below resistance- breakout imminent
Resistance 3355/80 (key), 3432, 3500- Support 3289-3302, 3240/46 (key), 3132

Gold prices are under pressure early in the week with XAU/USD threatening to break the 2025 uptrend. The immediate focus is on a breakout of the monthly opening-rang with the bulls vulnerable while below the record high-day close. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Short-term Outlook we noted that the XAU/USD rally had, “extended into uptrend resistance at the median-line- risk for possible inflection / topside exhaustion into this slope. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 3355 IF price is heading for a breakout…” Price reversed the following day with gold plunging nearly 5.9% off the June high. A rebound into the July open failed at former support near 3355 last week with the bears now threatening a break of the yearly uptrend- watch today’s close.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork extending of the yearly highs with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below slope resistance. Initial support rests with the June / July opens at 3289-3303 and is backed by 3240/46- a region defined by the May low-day reversal close (LDC) and the 61.8% extension of the June decline, and the 5/28 swing low. A break / close below this threshold would be needed to invalidate the yearly uptrend / suggest a larger correction is underway toward 3132 and the 100% extension of the April decline at 3072- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Resistance stands at 3355/80- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the April decline, the 61.8% retracement of the June decline and the record high-day close (HDC). A breach / daily close above this pivot zone is needed to mark uptrend resumption with subsequent resistance objectives unchanged at the record high close at 3432 and the record high at 3500.

Bottom line: Gold is poised for a breakout of the weekly / monthly opening-range with the long-bias vulnerable while below the yearly high-day close. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 3380 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 3240 needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway. Be on the lookout for a potential exhaustion low closer to the lower parallels if the bears break through. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD trade levels.

Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as "FOREX.com") is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, FOREX.com does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date.

This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it. No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by FOREX.com or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although FOREX.com is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, FOREX.com does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company incorporated in England and Wales with UK Companies House number 05616586 and with its registered office at 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK, with FCA Register Number: 446717.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd . This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy. FOREX.com products and services are not intended for Belgium residents.