Gold, Silver, Crude Oil Outlook: Technical Analysis, Market Positioning

Precious metals and energy markets remain in the spotlight this week as traders weigh futures positioning, technical setups, and macro headwinds. Gold continues to struggle for momentum despite support from central bank demand, while silver shows signs of waning futures market conviction. Crude oil remains pressured by rising short bets, with the $60 handle once again in view.

View related analysis:

• WTI Crude Oil Outlook: Bearish Momentum Mounts, COT Data Sends Warning
• Gold Futures Outlook: Technical Triangle Meets COT Pressure
• US Dollar Mixed Amid Anti-Fed Headlines, Flash PMIs, Jackson Hole

 

Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil Futures Market Technical Analysis

Gold Futures (GC) Market Exposure

Price action on gold’s weekly chart has remained choppy since May, with prices failing to retest the record high set in April. (For clarity, I’m using adjusted futures contracts for long-term charts, whereas unadjusted contracts show a fresh record high was reached two weeks ago.)

Gold continues to draw support from central bank purchases, political turmoil, and concerns over Federal Reserve independence. Yet the inability to hold onto gains is something bulls should take seriously in the near term. My bias remains that a breakout is likely in due course, but for now gold is caught in a sideways correction where dips look preferable, and rallies should be approached with caution.

Net-long exposure to gold futures among managed funds and large speculators has been trending higher since early May, driven by rising gross longs while shorts have gradually declined. This positioning backdrop could support an eventual upside break, even though overall open interest has slipped lower through the quieter North American summer months.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson, Source: COMEX Futures, LSEG

 

Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis: Daily Chart, 4-Hour Chart

A bullish engulfing candle formed on gold’s daily chart, hinting at firm demand above 3350 — a level that has provided support twice since June. While the 50-day EMA is acting as resistance, I suspect gold may attract safe-haven demand in the lead-up to Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.

A decisive break above 3400 would clear the 50-day EMA and could trigger a momentum-led retracement of much of the recent decline.

The 4-hour chart also shows resistance around the monthly pivot, with RSI (2) recently hitting overbought territory, suggesting a minor pullback is possible. Still, bulls may look for an intraday swing low within Wednesday’s bullish engulfing range as a signal to position for a potential breakout above 3400 heading into Powell’s Jackson Hole appearance.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson, Source: TradingView, COMEX Futures, Gold (GC1!)

 

 

Silver Futures (SI) Market Exposure

If gold prices manage to rally from here, silver could well follow. However, beyond the near term, silver is not my preferred bullish setup given the less favourable futures positioning backdrop. Net-long exposure among managed funds and large speculators has declined in recent weeks despite silver prices holding at elevated levels. Total open interest has also fallen, suggesting that silver’s rally may be losing momentum.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson, Source: COMEX Futures, LSEG

 

 

Silver Futures (SI) Technical Analysis: Daily Chart

The daily chart shows that silver futures have found support at the 50-day EMA. A 2-bar bullish reversal pattern has also formed called a bullish piercing line. Bulls could seek dips towards the monthly pivot point (37.55) or 50-day EMA (37.3) in anticipation of a move up to the 38.87 high, near the monthly S1 pivot point.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson, Source: TradingView, COMEX Futures, Silver (SI1!)

 

 

WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL) Market Exposure

In my previous analysis, I suggested WTI crude oil could be headed for $60. Futures traders have since continued to reduce their net-long exposure, with both managed funds and large speculators adding to short bets while trimming longs. Rising open interest also reinforces the view that bears remain the dominant force, rather than this simply being a case of long covering.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson, Source: ICE Futures, LSEG

 

 

WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL) Technical Analysis: Daily Chart

This dynamic may see rallies in crude oil capped—if they materialise at all. However, with prices still holding above support near a weekly VPOC (~62) and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, a modest bounce cannot be ruled out.

Should such a move occur, bears may be waiting to fade into strength, anticipating a test of—and potential break below—the $60 handle. For now, bulls could look for dips back towards Wednesday’s bullish range as a platform for a short-term pop higher, while bears may watch for evidence of a swing high on the daily chart (or lower) to position for a deeper move.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson, Source: TradingView, ICE Futures, WTI Crude Oil (CL1!)

 

View the full economic calendar

 

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge