Nasdaq 100 Forecast: FOMC Minutes Underscore the Hawkish Shift at the Fed

FOMC Minutes, Nasdaq 100 Key Points

• The FOMC minutes were broadly hawkish, with “a few participants” that saw a case for raising the target range and “several” questioning whether current policy is restrictive enough.
• After the minutes, strong data may once again be treated as “bad news” for risk assets if it keeps inflation risks alive.
• The near-term bias in the Nasdaq 100 remains neutral, with potential for a dip back toward the early June lows in the lower-28K range.

Even President Trump may have to give up on his hopes for a near-term interest rate cut after today’s minutes from the June FOMC meeting.

As expected, the FOMC minutes were broadly hawkish, showing a Federal Reserve that has moved away from its prior easing bias and is now openly debating whether, and when, rates may need to rise again. While officials unanimously voted to hold rates steady in June, “a few participants” saw a case for raising the target range, and “several” questioned whether current policy is restrictive enough.

The central issue is inflation. Officials remain concerned that price pressures could stay elevated due to tariffs, Middle East-related energy risks, resilient economic growth, and especially the AI buildout. The minutes repeatedly highlighted AI-related demand as a source of stronger investment, higher electricity use, and upward pressure on technology prices. While new Chairman Kevin Warsh has expressed his view that AI will be a long-term deflationary force, it seems like many of his colleagues are more concerned about the near-term inflationary impact.

For traders, the biggest takeaway is that FOMC policymakers are split between scenarios where persistent inflation requires additional near-term interest rate hikes and scenarios where inflation gradually fades and rates can eventually decline (though not likely until 2027 at the earliest). For markets, that means strong data may once again be treated as “bad news” for risk assets if it keeps inflation risks alive, a key dynamic to consider heading into next week’s highly-anticipated US CPI report.

Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis: NDX Daily Chart

Source: Tradingview, StoneX

From a high-level, the Nasdaq 100 continues to consolidate around the 30,000 level that has acted as a magnet for price over the last two months. Zooming in a bit, the index is threatening to break below a 1-month symmetrical triangle pattern, though we’ve yet to see a definitive close below that pattern with stocks recovering off intraday lows as President Trump tones down escalation fears around Iran.

Moving forward, the near-term bias in the Nasdaq 100 remains neutral, with potential for a dip back toward the early June lows in the lower-28K range depending on economic data and geopolitical headlines. Only a break below that floor would shift the longer-term bias in favor of a deeper pullback.

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

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