Oil, EUR/USD forecast: Two trades to watch

Oil steadies after recent declines, with geopolitical tensions and data still in focus.

Oil has steadied around 56.00 after two days of declines. Oil prices have fallen 2% so far this week as Venezuela's supply weighs on the market and investors digest recent data.

Oil has been under pressure following the U.S. announcement of plans to import 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil, raising concerns about oversupply.  While typical geopolitical tensions in an oil-producing region can lift oil prices. This isn’t the case here as the prospect of increased supply keeps prices under pressure.

There have been some supportive developments that have helped stem the selloff.

US crude stockpiles fell by more than expected, an indication of demand strength, which, together with a stronger-than-expected US ISM services PMI, helped to support prices for now. Attention will turn to US jobless claims and Chinese inflation data.

Investors will continue to monitor geopolitical developments, particularly reports in the Wall Street Journal that Trump plans to assume long-term control of Venezuela's oil to bring prices down to $50 per barrel.

Oil forecast- technical analysis

Oil trades in a multi-month descending channel. Recent failure to rise above the 50 SMA, combined with the RSI below 50, keeps sellers hopeful of further declines.

After rejection at the 50 SMA, the price rebounded lower and is testing support at 56.00, the October low. Sellers will look to take out this level, opening the door to 55.00, the 2025 low. Below here, attention turns to 50.00, a level last seen in 2021.

On the upside, resistance is seen at 58.70, the 50 SMA, and the upper band of the falling channel. A rise above here creates a higher high and brings 60.00, the round number, into focus. A rise above here exposes the 200 SMA at 62.50.

EUR/USD holds steady ahead of US data

EUR/USD is holding steady for a second day following mixed data yesterday and ahead of further US figures today.

The pair is so far on track for a small decline at the start of 2026, following a 13.5% jump last year.

The EUR is looking ahead to consumer, business, and economic sentiment data for the region. This comes after yesterday’s inflation figures, which showed CPI eased to 2% YoY, down from 2.1% in November and reaching the ECB’s target level for the first time since August. The data support the view that the ECB will not cut rates again this year, which could keep the EUR underpinned.

However, investors will closely monitor the Trump Greenland story. While this is not impacting the EUR for now, any sense that Trump could move forward with plans to acquire Greenland could pull the EUR lower.

The USD is calm on Thursday ahead of US jobless claims. Data on Wednesday showed that the US labour market was in a low-hiring, low-firing state, with job openings falling by more than forecast. However, the service sector unexpectedly ramped up in December, with the services PMI reaching a 14-month high. These data points present a mixed picture for the Federal Reserve, which could reinforce a cautious stance.

The market is pricing in two rate cuts this year, compared with the Fed’s one. Policymakers are divided over the outlook, but no rate cut is expected this month.

EUR/USD forecast- technical analysis

EUR/USD’s recovery from 1.15, the November low ran into resistance at 1.18 and rebounded lower. The price is testing the 1.1670 support zone.

Sellers supported by the RSI below 50 will look to break below this support zone and the 50 SMA at 1.1640. A break below here exposes the 200 SMA at 1.1560 before bringing the 1.15 level back into focus.

Should the 1.1670 support zone hold, buyers will look to rise above 1.17 before bringing 1.18 into play.