Oil Price Forecast: WTI Bulls Eye Key Technical Resistance

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly, Daily & Intraday Trade Levels

Oil rebounds from multi-year downtrend- rallies more than 17.6% off yearly low
WTI recovery losing steam ahead of major resistance hurdle- risk for exhaustion / price inflection ahead
Resistance 65.62-66.31, 70.95-71.90 (key), 78- Support 59.16-60.31, 54.36/48 (key), 51.68

Crude oil prices are off more than 2.6% this week after rebounding nearly 18% off multi-year lows. WTI is now trading just below initial resistance hurdles and the first major test for the bulls- risk for possible exhaustion / price inflection ahead. Battle lines drawn on the weekly, daily, and 240min technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

Technical Outlook: Oil pieces rebounded off downtrend support this month after plunging nearly 32% off the yearly highs. The recovery is now approaching confluent downtrend resistance at the median-line near 65.62-66.31- a region defined by the 2020 high and the 2023 close low. Looking for a reaction off this pivot zone IF reached with a breach / close above needed to suggest a more significant low is in place.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A look at the WTI daily chart highlights the magnitude of the monthly decline and recovery. Daily support rests with the 2020 high-week close (HWC) / 100% extension of the 2023 decline at 59.16-60.31- a weekly close below this threshold would be needed to mark downtrend resumption towards the 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline / 2016 high at 54.36/48 (look for a larger reaction there IF reached). Subsequent support objectives seen at the June 2019 LDC at 51.68 and the 61.58% retracement of the 2020 rally at 49.44.

Oil Price Chart – WTI 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A closer look at oil price action shows WTI trading within the confines of a proposed ascending pitchfork extending off the monthly lows with the 25% parallel offering support today. The weekly opening-range remains preserved heading into Friday and the immediate focus is on a breakout here for near-term guidance.

A breach / close above the 66.31 would expose the next major technical consideration at 70.96-71.90- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range, the 200-day moving average, the August low-day close (LDC) and the 2025 yearly open. Strength beyond this threshold would be needed to suggest a larger trend reversal is underway.

Bottom line: Oil has rebounded off trend support with the recovery now approaching downtrend resistance- risk for topside exhaustion / price inflection into 66. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 59.16 IF oil is heading for a larger recovery on this stretch with a close above the median-line needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Ultimately, a larger rebound may offer more favorable opportunities closer to trend resistance. Watch the weekly close for guidance here.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as "FOREX.com") is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, FOREX.com does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date.

This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it. No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by FOREX.com or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although FOREX.com is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, FOREX.com does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company incorporated in England and Wales with UK Companies House number 05616586 and with its registered office at 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK, with FCA Register Number: 446717.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd . This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy. FOREX.com products and services are not intended for Belgium residents.