Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Bulls Fight to Reclaim 0.8000
Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels
- USD/CHF rebounds off confluent support near 14-year lows- July opening-range taking shape
- USD/CHF risk for larger recovery within broader downtrend
- Resistance 8000, 8060, 8091-8103 (key)- Support 7931, 7882 (key), 7779
The US Dollar is attempting to snap a two-week losing streak against the Swiss Fanc with USD/CHF rebounding off technical support early in the month. The focus is on a breakout of the weekly & monthly opening-ranges as the bulls attempt to reclaim 0.8000. Battles lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts.
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Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In month’s Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook we highlighted the risk for topside exhaustion as the USDCHF recovery was approaching technical resistance. We noted that, “From a trading standpoint, the key range break is 8091-8225 for guidance- rallies would need to be limited to the monthly open for the May downtrend to remain viable with a close sub-8060 needed to mark resumption.” Price exhausted into the monthly open two-days later before reversing sharply with a break below 8060 fueling a decline of more than 4.5% off the June highs.
USD/CHF rebounded off channel support into the July open at the 1.618% extension of the May decline at 7881. The focus is on this near-term recovery within the broader downtrend with monthly opening-range now taking shape just above support.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Swisse price action shows USD/CHF carving the weekly opening-range just below the 80-handle and just above the objective monthly open at 7931. The immediate focus is on a breakout of this range. Initial resistance is eyed at 8060 backed by bearish invalidation at 8091-8103- a region defined by the April low-day close (LDC), the 38.2% retracement of the May decline, and the 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline. Ultimately, a close above the May low at 8186 would be needed to shift the broader focus back to the long-side in USD/CHF.
Monthly open support rests at 7931 with key support steady at 7882- a break / close below this threshold is needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 78.6% retracement of the 2011 advance at 7779 and the highlighted trendline confluence near ~7700- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: A rebound off technical support is testing initial resistance near the 80- handle with the monthly & weekly opening-ranges taking shape. From a trading standpoint, the threat remains for a larger recovery within the broader downtrend, but rallies should be limited to 8103 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 7881 needed to mark downtrend resumption. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
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