Swissy Attracts Safe-Haven Bets, AUD Shorts Surge to Record High| COT report

Safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc has seen speculative gross longs surge, despite traders remaining firmly net short overall. Meanwhile, large speculators have pushed Australian dollar gross shorts to a record high, leaving AUD/USD vulnerable to a short squeeze. US dollar bulls also remain in control, adding another $10.1 billion to net-long exposure as the dollar index tests trend resistance following a four-week rally.

View related analysis:

Swiss Franc Demand Rises as Australian Dollar Bears Double Down

Large Speculator Positioning from the COT report

Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG

US Dollar: Futures traders added $10.1 billion to their net-long exposure last week, taking the total to $34.3 billion.
EUR/USD: Large speculators were at their most bearish on euro futures since February 2020, with net shorts of 99.3k contracts.
GBP/USD: Asset managers and large speculators increased their combined net-short exposure for a third week to 243k contracts.
USD/JPY: Minor adjustments to yen positioning saw asset managers increase their net shorts to a 10-month high of 67.8k contracts.
USD/CHF: Safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc saw gross longs among large speculators surge to a 3.5-year high of 27.8k contracts.
USD/CAD: Large speculators aggressively increased Canadian dollar gross longs, although the remain net short by 90.2k contracts.
AUD/USD: Large speculators increased their net-short exposure to Australian dollar futures to a 14-month high of 98.6k contracts.

Asset Manager Positioning | COT Report

Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

FX Futures Positioning | COT Report (IMM Data)

US Dollar Index (DXY) Futures Positioning | COT Report

The dollar rallied for a fourth week to reach its highest level since April 2025, although bullish momentum is waning. It rose 0.28% over the week, with a high-to-low range of 0.76%, while trend resistance appears to be doing its job for now.

Futures traders increased their net longs for a fourth week to $34.3 billion, adding $10.1 billion from the prior week. Asset managers marginally increased their net longs and remain so by around 12k contracts. Large speculators increased their bullish exposure to 19.1k contracts, taking the combined net-long position between the two groups to around 31k contracts.

Traders now need to decide how much rising crude oil prices could influence the Fed’s inflation outlook, particularly with consumer sentiment sitting near a record low. Kevin Warsh is set to speak at the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok on Friday, while US CPI and retail sales will also be released this week to help fine-tune policy expectations and the dollar’s direction.

Source: CFTC (COT), ICE, LSEG

USD/CHF (Swiss franc) Futures Positioning | COT Report

Swiss franc positioning has become increasingly conflicted. Gross longs among both asset managers and large speculators have surged as geopolitical risk and European fiscal concerns revive demand for the franc as a safe haven. Yet gross shorts also remain elevated, reflecting the SNB’s neutral policy outlook and limited expectations for higher rates. The result is a reduction in net-short exposure rather than a wholesale shift to bullish positioning.

Gross longs among large speculators have risen to 27.8k, while asset managers have increased theirs to a 14-month high of 19.5k, for a combined 47.3k. But gross shorts remain much larger at 56.9k and 51.6k respectively. That leaves both groups firmly net short, although the recent surge in longs shows bearish positioning is becoming less one-sided.

Safe-haven demand is yet to overpower the broader downtrend in the Swiss franc, but a pickup in inflation that lifts SNB tightening expectations could help revive the longer-term bullish trend in CHF - bearish for USD/CHF.

The franc also has the US dollar side of the equation to contend with. The dollar is yet to show any meaningful signs of rolling over, so despite the surge in CHF longs, USD/CHF bears may need to remain patient for now.

Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG

AUD/USD Futures Positioning | COT Report

Large speculators have been vindicated for aggressively shorting the Australian dollar throughout July and August, despite prices rising at the time. And they have continued to embrace the bearish move, pushing gross-short exposure to a record high.

With AUD/USD futures falling for four consecutive weeks, rising shorts alongside falling longs have pushed net-short exposure to a two-year high of 98.6k contracts.

However, positioning may be approaching a sentiment extreme, leaving bears vulnerable to a short squeeze should the US dollar retreat or risk appetite improve. While the broader bearish trend remains intact, such crowded positioning suggests traders should be cautious about chasing AUD/USD lower at current levels.

Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG

EUR, GBP, JPY and CAD Futures Positioning | COT Report

Large speculators remain heavily net short EUR, GBP and CAD futures, with euro shorts reaching fresh multi-year highs. Meanwhile, Japanese yen positioning stands out, with net longs rising sharply as traders cut short exposure. Canadian dollar gross longs have also surged, although historically elevated short positions continue to outweigh them. The broader picture points to persistent bearish positioning across several major currencies, despite signs of renewed demand for the yen and Canadian dollar.

Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as "FOREX.com") is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, FOREX.com does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date.

This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it. No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by FOREX.com or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although FOREX.com is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, FOREX.com does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company incorporated in England and Wales with UK Companies House number 05616586 and with its registered office at 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK, with FCA Register Number: 446717.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd . This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy. FOREX.com products and services are not intended for Belgium residents.