Weekly Equities Outlook: US banks & Netflix earnings

U.S. Banks Set to Kick Off Q2 Earnings Season as Trading Boom Offsets Economic Concerns

U.S. banks will kick off second-quarter earnings season on Tuesday, July 14, with five of the six largest lenders reporting results. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are all due to report, while Morgan Stanley follows on July 15.

Expectations are for another solid quarter, supported by exceptionally strong trading revenues as heightened market volatility boosted client activity across equities, fixed income and currencies. Geopolitical tensions, shifting Federal Reserve expectations and uncertainty surrounding the AI trade all contributed to elevated trading volumes throughout the quarter.

Trading is expected to be a standout performer. The largest U.S. banks are on track to post their second-best quarter on record for trading revenue, with equities trading revenue expected to come in just below the record set in the first quarter.

Goldman Sachs' equity trading desk is expected to generate more than $5 billion in revenue. In fixed income, currencies and commodities, JPMorgan is expected to post a 10% year-on-year increase in trading revenue, while Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are forecast to report gains of 6% and 2%, respectively.

Investment banking is also expected to be a key driver of earnings. A recovery in capital markets activity, together with high-profile transactions such as the SpaceX IPO and Alphabet share sales, should provide a meaningful boost to underwriting and advisory revenues. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, given their leading roles in the SpaceX listing, are particularly well positioned to benefit.

Global investment banking fees reached $61.4 billion during the first half of 2026, up 24% from a year earlier, highlighting the continued recovery in dealmaking activity.

Commercial banking trends will also be closely scrutinised. Investors will be looking for evidence of continued loan growth and further expansion in net interest margins. However, management commentary on credit quality and consumer health could prove equally important as higher interest rates and persistent inflation continue to pressure households.

Looking ahead, guidance for the second half of the year is likely to be the key market driver. Investors will want to know whether strong trading revenues can be sustained as market volatility eases and whether improving investment banking activity is translating into a broader earnings recovery.

The KBW Bank Index is trading close to a record high, rising 11% this year, ahead of the S&P 500's 9.3% gain.

JPMorgan Chase

Expectations are for JPMorgan to report earnings per share of $5.62 on revenue of $49.5 billion.

On the weekly chart, after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, JPMorgan rallied to a record high of 340. While momentum is beginning to slow, the broader uptrend remains intact.

Should buying momentum return, bulls will look for a move above 340 to target fresh record highs, with 350 the next logical upside objective.

Initial support can be seen around 330, the January high. A break below this level exposes the 50 SMA around 300. It would take a move below 295 to create a lower low and bring 278, the 2026 low, into focus.

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs is expected to report earnings per share of $14.47, up 32% year-on-year, on revenue of $16.49 billion, an increase of 13%.

Consensus EPS estimates have been revised 3.5% higher over the past 30 days, reflecting growing optimism ahead of the results.

On the weekly chart, Goldman Sachs has been trending higher since 2024, reaching a record high of 1,125 last month. While the price has eased back, the broader technical picture remains constructive.

Buyers will look for a move above 1,125 to target fresh record highs.

Support is seen around the psychological 1,000 level. A break below there exposes the rising trendline support around 900. It would take a move below 780, the March low, to change the long-term bullish structure.

Netflix Q2 Earnings Preview

Netflix will report second-quarter earnings on July 16 after the market closes.

The results come as the share price trades 25% lower year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500's 9% gain. The stock is also trading around 45% below the record high reached roughly 12 months ago.

The weakness appears to reflect a deterioration in investor sentiment rather than one single event, as markets reassess the long-term outlook amid concerns over AI disruption, the rise of short-form video platforms and signs that user engagement may be slowing.

Expectations are for EPS of $0.80 on revenue of $12.58 billion, equating to annual revenue growth of 13.5%. While revenue growth remains in double digits, the pace of growth is slowing, suggesting Netflix could be entering a more mature phase of its growth cycle.

Competition across the streaming sector is hot. Disney+, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max, Apple TV+ and YouTube continue to compete aggressively for viewers, and that’s not even taking into account social media.

Netflix no longer reports subscriber numbers, meaning investors are placing greater emphasis on revenue growth, margins and advertising. Even so, analysts continue to expect around 3.5 million net subscriber additions during the quarter.

Advertising remains a relatively small contributor to revenue, but it is growing quickly and carries attractive margins, meaning it could become an increasingly important driver of earnings over time.

With the stock trading on a price-to-earnings ratio of around 24, valuation is at one of its most attractive levels in almost four years. However, the share price could remain under pressure if growth continues to moderate.

How to Trade NTFL Earnings

On the weekly chart, Netflix has been forming a series of lower highs and lower lows after failing at the record high around 134. The price trades below its falling trendline and the 50 SMA and is currently testing support at the 200 SMA around 71.

Sellers, supported by the RSI below 50, will look for a break below the 200 SMA to extend losses towards 58, the August 2024 low, followed by 54, the April 2024 low.

Should the 200 SMA hold, buyers will look for a recovery towards 100, where the falling trendline and the 50 SMA converge. A move above this level would bring 110, the 2026 high, into focus.