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Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Defends March Low

By :   David Song , Strategist (Former)
April 2, 2025 8:20 PM

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD

AUD/USD seems to be defending the March low (0.6187) as it extends the rebound from the weekly low (0.6219), but the exchange rate may track the flattening slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6297) as it still trades within the February range.

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Defends March Low

AUD/USD retraces the decline from the start of the week as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeps the cash rate at 4.10%, and the exchange rate may climb towards the March high (0.6391) as it trades to a fresh weekly high (0.6314).

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In turn, AUD/USD may stage another attempt to test the February high (0.6409) as the RBA reiterates that ‘sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe is the Board’s highest priority,’ and it seems as though Governor Michele Bullock and Co. are in no rush to further unwind its restrictive policy as ‘the Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions.’

With that said, waning speculation for an imminent RBA rate-cut may keep AUD/USD afloat as it bounces back ahead of the March low (0.6187), but the exchange rate may consolidate over the coming days as it still holds within the February range.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

  • AUD/USD holds above the March low (0.6187) amid the failed attempts to close below the 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6270 (2023 low) zone, with a push/close above 0.6318 (November 2023 low) raising the scope for a move towards the March high (0.6391).
  • Next area of interest comes in around 0.6410 (50% Fibonacci extension), but AUD/USD may track the flattening slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6297) should it continue hold below the February high (0.6409).
  • Lack of momentum to push above 0.6318 (November 2023 low) may curb the recent rebound in AUD/USD, with a close below 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6270 (2023 low) zone bringing the 0.6130 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6170 (2022 low) region on the radar.

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--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on X at @DavidJSong

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