Open an Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an Account
✖

GBP/USD Clears January High After Closing Above 50-Day SMA

By :   David Song , Strategist (Former)
February 14, 2025 4:20 PM

US Dollar Outlook: GBP/USD

GBP/USD extends the recent series of higher highs and lows to clear the January high (1.2576), and the exchange rate may further retrace the decline from the December high (1.2812) as it closes above the 50-Day SMA (1.2477) for the first time since October.

GBP/USD Clears January High After Closing Above 50-Day SMA

GBP/USD rallies to a fresh yearly high (1.2630) as the US Retail Sales report shows a 0.9% contraction in January versus forecasts for a 0.1% decline, and signs of a slowing economy may continue to produce headwinds for the Greenback as it puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to further unwind its restrictive policy.

Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.

David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here

 

In turn, speculation for lower US interest rates may keep GBP/USD afloat ahead of the next Fed meeting in March, and a further advance in the exchange rate may continue to push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) towards overbought territory as it climbs to its highest level since September.

With that said, GBP/USD may no longer track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (1.2477) as it closes above the moving average for the first time since October, but lack of momentum to extend the bullish price series may keep the exchange rate below the December high (1.2812).

GBP/USD Price Chart –Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

  • GBP/USD climbs to a fresh yearly high (1.2630) after carving a bullish engulfing candlestick earlier this week, and a break/close above the 1.2710 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) to 1.2760 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) region may push the exchange rate towards the December high (1.2812).
  • A breach above 1.2820 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) opens up the 1.2900 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 1.2910 (50% Fibonacci extension) zone, but the recent series of higher highs and lows may unravel should GBP/USD struggle to break/close above the 1.2710 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) to 1.2760 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) region.
  • Need a move below the 1.2390 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 1.2446 (May low) zone to bring the 1.2300 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to 1.2310 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) region back on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around the monthly low (1.2249).

Additional Market Outlooks

USD/JPY Pulls Back Ahead of Monthly High to Halt Three-Day Rally

AUD/USD Eyes January High Ahead of RBA Rate Decision

Gold Price Forecast: RSI Still Sits in Overbought Territory

EUR/USD Recovers as Chair Powell Remains Willing to Adjust Policy

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

© FOREX.COM 2026