CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Falls Toward Monthly Low amid Soft US CPI

By :   David Song , Strategist (Former)

US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF

USD/CHF pulls back ahead of the 50-Day SMA (0.8282) as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) prints at 2.4% in May versus forecasts for a 2.5% reading, and the exchange rate may continue to track the negative slope in the moving average if it fails to hold within the opening range for June.

US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Falls Toward Monthly Low amid Soft US CPI

USD/CHF falls toward the monthly low (0.8157) as the softer-than-expected CPI report fuels speculation for lower US interest rates, and the US Dollar may continue to face headwinds ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on June 18 as higher tariffs appear to be having a limited impact on inflation.

Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.

David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here

 

With that said, the rebound from the year low (0.8040) may continue to unravel as USD/CHF holds below the 50-Day SMA (0.8282), but the range bound price action may persist should the exchange rate defend the advance from the monthly low (0.8157).

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CHF Price on TradingView

  • USD/CHF pulls back ahead of the 50-Day SMA (0.8282) to hold within the opening range for June, but failure to defend the monthly low (0.8157) may push the exchange rate toward 0.8080 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement).
  • A breach below the yearly low (0.8040) opens up 0.7810 (161.8% Fibonacci extension), but USD/CHF may track the April range should it continue to hold above the monthly low (0.8157).
  • Need a breach above the monthly opening range to bring 0.8360 (100% Fibonacci extension) on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around the May high (0.8476).

Additional Market Outlooks

US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Holds Above Monthly Low Ahead of US CPI

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Coils Within June Opening Range

AUD/USD Climbs Toward Monthly High amid US-China Trade Talk

GBP/USD Vulnerable to Rise in UK Unemployment Rate

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

© FOREX.COM 2026