AUD/USD Negates Ascending Channel amid Five-Day Selloff

Australia Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD

AUD/USD appears to be negating the ascending channel from earlier this year as it marks a five-day selloff for the first time since October.

AUD/USD Negates Ascending Channel amid Five-Day Selloff

AUD/USD continues to carve a series of lower highs and lows as it tumbles to a fresh weekly low (0.6250), and the exchange rate may continue give back the rebound from the monthly low (0.6088) should it close below channel support.

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It seems that the ongoing shift in US trade policy is dragging on AUD/USD as President Donald Trump reiterates his plan to impose a 10% tariff on China, Australia’s largest trading partner, and headlines coming out of the White House may continue to sway the exchange rate as it clouds the outlook for global growth.

With that said, the weakness in AUD/USD may carry into March as it struggles to trade within the ascending channel from earlier this year, but the exchange rate may face range bound conditions should it track the flattening slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6261).

AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

AUD/USD appears to be negating the ascending channel from earlier this year following the failed attempt to push above 0.6410 (50% Fibonacci extension), with the exchange rate on track to mark a five-day selloff for the first time since October.
Lack of momentum to hold above the 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6270 (2023 low) zone may push AUD/USD back towards the 0.6130 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6170 (2022 low) region, with the next area of interest coming in around the monthly low (0.6088).
At the same time, AUD/USD may track the flattening slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6261) should it struggle to break/close below the 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6270 (2023 low) zone, with a move above 0.6318 (November 2023 low) bringing the monthly high (0.6409) on the radar.

Additional Market Outlooks

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Jumps with Trump Tariffs to Hit in April

GBP/USD Climbs to Fresh Monthly High to Approach Channel Resistance

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Continues to Coil Within January Range

USD/JPY Halts Three-Day Selloff to Keep RSI Above Oversold Zone

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on X at @DavidJSong

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