Bitcoin Rallies Its Way To Independence Day
Whilst volatility is generally expected to be lower on US Independence Day today, Bitcoin clearly has other plans after rallying 10% just after US markets closed. Let’s take a close look at this volatility.
On the face of it, the daily chart appears constructively bullish. It continues to print higher highs and lows, a 3-wave (corrective) move is apparent on the four-hour chart and a spinning top Doji and bullish appeared near its corrective lows. Furthermore, the bullish hammer respected a 78.6% Fibonacci extension, before rallying higher. If prices can build a level of support above 10, then we could indeed see this breaking higher. However, the levels of volatility seen near its record highs are a concern, so we’re on guard for another, volatile dip lower if it fails to break above its cycle highs.
As previously mentioned, volatility on Bitcoin is a different beast, but even by its own standards it appears erratic after hitting new highs.
- Bitcoin gave back nearly 30% after hitting its new high over 6 sessions, making it the largest correction during this uptrend. This compares with an 18% decline over 7 sessions in its previous correction.
- 27% of this fall was the day after the high.
- 8 sessions of the last 7 has seen daily ranges above 10% (the 1-year rolling average is 5.2%).
Flicking back through the chart, these levels of volatility have generally been associated with, downtrends, deep corrections or periods ahead of a crash. Therefore, whilst we shouldn’t necessarily ‘fight the trend’ if it breaks higher, having an appreciation for price action characteristics could at least provide a reality check for our expectations.
Related analysis:
>Bitcoin: Do Volatile Bullish Sessions Lead To Further Gains?
>Four Big Bullish Factors Boosting Bitcoin…And Why the Euphoria May Still Be Excessive
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.
FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.
FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.
GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
© FOREX.COM 2026