Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Tests 3+ Month Highs, Iran Tensions Boiling Over?

WTI Crude Oil Key Points

• WTI Crude Oil prices are surging on fears that the protests in Iran could metastasize and disrupt production or the Straight of Hormuz.
• However, the upside risk is tempered by broader fundamentals and global oversupply.
• Current levels near $62 represent a critical line in the sand: If oil prices break above resistance at $62, it could clear the way for a continuation toward the 6+ month highs in the $66 area next.

In the current environment, it can be hard for traders to get a clean read on what’s driving the market on a day-to-day basis. In addition to long-term trends around economic growth and inflation, the AI infrastructure buildout, and sovereign debt loads, a different geopolitical hotspot appears to crop up daily.

While the situation in Venezuela (and perhaps soon Greenland) continue to simmer in the background, the country that demands the most attention right now is Iran.

Recent nationwide protests in Iran have raised concerns about stability in one of the world’s most important oil-producing nations. Triggered by economic hardship and a sharp currency decline, the unrest has led to widespread demonstrations and a strong government crackdown. While the protests have not yet disrupted oil production, markets are increasingly pricing in a geopolitical risk premium.

As a reminder, Iran remains a critical player in global energy markets, producing roughly 2-3 million barrels per day and controlling the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which nearly 20 million barrels of oil transit daily. Any disruption to exports or shipping routes could have significant implications for global supply and pricing.

Against that backdrop, oil prices are surging, with WTI approaching $62 and Brent crude climbing toward $66 per barrel. These gains underscore market sensitivity to geopolitical developments, even in the absence of physical supply outages.

However, the upside risk is tempered by broader fundamentals. Global inventories remain elevated, and additional supply from other producers, including Venezuela, has helped offset fears of a sharp shortfall.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of oil prices will depend on whether the protests escalate into disruptions of production or export infrastructure. While the current impact is primarily sentiment-driven, any move toward regional instability or interference with the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a more pronounced and sustained price surge, especially with US President Trump proclaiming in a recent post that “HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”

Crude Oil Technical Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart

Source: Tradingview, StoneX

Turning to the technicals, WTI Crude Oil is rallying for a fifth straight day, taking the benchmark from the bottom of its 3-month range between $55 and $62 to the top. From a charting perspective, the current level represents a critical line in the sand: If oil prices break above resistance at $62 (including the 200-day MA) it could clear the way for a continuation toward the 6+ month highs in the $66 area, near longer-term bearish trend line resistance off the H2 2023 high.

On the other hand, signs that the protests are slowing down and stability is returning to the nation would remove some of the geopolitical risk premium from crude prices. In that scenario, a reversal and pullback to below $60 would likely emerge. Either way, oil traders should be particularly attuned to the headlines out of Iran in the coming days.

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

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