DXY, Gold & Crude Oil Analysis: Key Levels to Watch This Week

Dollar strength continues to pressure crude oil and gold as both assets approach defining support levels near $69 and 3,930, respectively, while inflation implications continue to linger.

The key theme I'm watching is whether the US dollar can extend its short-term rally, triggering additional downside across major currencies, commodities, and precious metals before another major trend reversal develops.

I discuss these scenarios in my daily MENA webinar and bi-weekly global webinar.

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DXY Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale

 

Source: Trading view

Outlook: Bullish breakout risks remain in place before a potentially stronger corrective pullback creates another dip-buying opportunity. As the old saying goes, the trend is your friend.

The DXY has respected its rising trend structure since 2008 and is now testing:

• A multi-year support-turned-resistance zone near 102, in place since 2022.
• The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline between the 2025 high and the 2026 low.
• The potential neckline of a double-bottom formation that has been developing over the past year.

A sustained breakout above 102 would expose the next major Fibonacci resistance levels:

• 102.80 (50% retracement)
• 104.50 (61.8% retracement)

This scenario could accelerate downside pressure on EUR/USD, with potential targets toward 1.1280 and 1.10.

On the downside, the DXY would need to break below 100.80, 100.20, and 99.30 to re-establish a short-term bearish outlook, potentially supporting a recovery in major currencies and precious metals.

Gold Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

Gold is currently trading below resistance at 4,090, derived from the 50% Fibonacci extension of the move between the May 29 high (4,595), the June 11 low (4,020), and the June 17 rebound high (4,382).

Should bearish momentum accelerate, the next major support is the 2026 low at 3,930, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci extension. While this level could trigger another rebound, a sustained breakdown may expose deeper downside targets:

• 3880 - 3,810 (100% extension)
• 3,650 (127.2% extension)
• 3,460 (161.8% extension – potential long-term target)

The latter also coincides with a major multi-month resistance zone from 2025, which could turn into an important support level for long-term bullish positioning.

On the upside, gold must break above the descending trendline that has capped prices since March 2026 to confirm a bullish reversal. Key resistance levels remain at 4,090, 4,180, 4,220, and 4,370. Additional insights: Gold and Silver Price Forecast: US Dollar Rally Threatens Fresh 2026 Lows

Crude Oil – Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

WTI crude oil is currently holding above the $69 level, which also coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2026 advance, presenting three key scenarios:

Bullish scenario (in line with daily oversold momentum last seen in 2025)

• A rebound above 73.50 could expose the next resistance levels at 78 - 80.

Consolidation scenario

• Price remains trapped below 73.50 while holding above the 66.50–69 support zone.

Bearish scenario

• A break below 67 could expose 61, with more extreme downside risks extending toward 55.

A more detailed H2 crude oil outlook can be found here. Crude Oil Price Forecast H2 2026: Will Oversupply Push WTI Back to $55?

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves