Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Five-Week Range Puts Yearly Lows on the Line

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

EUR/USD EUR/USD remains confined to a narrow trading range near yearly lows, with weekly momentum continuing to favor the bears.
A decisive break below critical support would signal resumption of the broader downtrend and expose deeper correction to fresh yearly lows.
Bulls need to reclaim resistance at the monthly high to strengthen the case for a more significant low and sustained recovery.
Next week's U.S. CPI and PPI reports could provide the catalyst for a decisive range break as Fed rate expectations remain in focus.
Resistance 1.1276, 1.1355/65 (key), 1.1480- Support 1.1110/30 (key), 1.1032, 1.0905

The Euro enters mid-November at a critical technical crossroads as EUR/USD struggles to establish a sustained recovery from the recent decline. Sellers have been unable to force a decisive breakdown, but repeated attempts to rally have also failed to overcome overhead resistance, leaving the broader bearish structure intact. The latest rebound stalled near resistance and now defines the November opening-range high, further highlighting the significance of the current consolidation. With the technical battle lines clearly defined, the next sustained break could prove decisive in determining whether a more meaningful low is developing or the broader yearly decline is poised to resume.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join me live Mondays at 8:30am EST and tune in to the Opening Bell Tuesday through Friday at 9:30am EST for continued market coverage throughout the week. All episodes are archived on my YouTube Playlist.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast we noted that EUR/USD was testing a critical support zone and, “the decline may be vulnerable while above this level. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1355/65 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1110 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.” Euro has been trading in a well-defined range just above key support for the past five weeks and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the focus is on a breakout for guidance heading into mid-November.

Critical support rests at 1.1110/30- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2022 advance, the October lows, and the 50% retracement of the 2025 advance. Weekly RSI remains at the lowest levels of the year, and the momentum profile remains in favor the bears for now.

Initial resistance was tested into the start of the month at the 2023 swing high at 1.1276 and now defines the November opening range high. Bearish invalidation remains at the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance and the April 2025 high week close (HWC) at 1.1355/65. A breach / weekly close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger reversal in underway. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the median line of the yearly downtrend (currently near ~1.1440s) and the 61.8% retracement of the August decline at 1.1480.

A break / weekly close below this key pivot zone is needed to fuel the next leg of the decline towards the lower parallel of the yearly pitchfork which converges on the 2020 low-month close (LMC) at 1.1032. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached- losses below this threshold would shift the focus towards key Fibonacci support at the 61.8% retracement at 1.0905.

Bottom Line: EUR/USD has been trading within a well-defined range just above pivotal support at the yearly low for the past five weeks. Look for a breakout of this range for guidance in the weeks ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1276 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1110 needed to fuel the next leg of the yearly downtrend.

EUR/USD event risk next week remains heavily U.S.-focused, with October CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Friday the main catalysts. Friday’s stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report reinforced expectations for another Fed hike in December, leaving the dollar sensitive to any further evidence of persistent price pressures. A full slate of Fed speakers could add to the volatility, while euro-area risk is lighter and centered on ECB commentary and the Economic Bulletin. A firm U.S. inflation sequence would strengthen the dollar’s policy advantage, while softer readings could ease rate pressure and help stabilize EUR/USD. Stay nimble into the releases watch the weekly close for directional guide. Review my latest Technical Outlook Video as well as my Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.

FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.

FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.

GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.