Gold Forecast: XAU/USD Could Approach $3K…IF it Can Break $2950 Resistance

Gold Key Points

Gold has rallied essentially non-stop since we flipped the calendars to January, gaining more than $300 over that period.
The $3000 handle may act as a magnet if current resistance at $2950 is broken.
Conversely, a break below last week’s low near $2960 would hint at a deeper pullback toward the 50-day EMA and previous-resistance-turned-support in the $2790-$2800 area.

After gold’s tremendous start to 2025, what else is there to say about the yellow metal?

Despite the ebb and flow of global trade war fears, central bank interest rate expectations, and the progress (or lack thereof) of peace talks in Eastern Europe, gold has rallied essentially non-stop since we flipped the calendars to January, gaining more than $300 over that period.

With prices now approaching the round $3000 handle, traders are starting to bet that the key figure may act as a magnet and draw prices toward it in the coming weeks. Of course, there are plenty of potential risks to gold bulls, running the gamut from successful peace negotiations in Ukraine, reduced deficits in the US and across the developed world, continued delays/reductions in US tariffs, and stalling central bank interest rate cuts among others, but for now, the impressive momentum in the yellow metal should be respected.

Gold Technical Analysis – XAU/USD Daily Chart

Source: StoneX, TradingView

As outlined above, gold broke out of a symmetrical triangle pattern in mid-January, eventually stretching up to test the “measured move” objective of the pattern near $2950 before stalling over the last week.

While the immediate target from the triangle pattern has been reached, the lack of a meaningful pullback so far suggests that bulls are eager to buy up any near-term dips in the yellow metal, potentially setting the stage for a break above $2950 resistance in the coming days. In that scenario, gold could quickly surge up to the key $3K level as the last bears throw in the towel.

Conversely, a break below last week’s low near $2960 would hint at a deeper pullback toward the 50-day EMA and previous-resistance-turned-support in the $2790-$2800 area.

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX

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