Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Iran Conflict at a Crossroads, NDX Bears Break Key Support

Nasdaq 100, Iran Key Points

The early week positivity has faded and traders are once again growing nervous heading into the weekend
Trump’s recent comments paradoxically signal that the global economy may need to deteriorate further to exert substantial enough pressure force a ceasefire.
The Nasdaq 100 is near 6-month lows, breaking support at the 24,000 ahead of Trump’s “deadline” this weekend.

In what’s become a pattern since the Iran conflict started nearly four weeks ago, the positivity of Monday and Tuesday has faded and traders are once again growing wary heading into the weekend.

Source: Tradingview, StoneX

In terms of today’s headline, President Trump threatened that Iran’s negotiators “better get serious soon” and that the US was nearing a point of “no turning back” that “won’t be pretty” ahead of his self-imposed grace period deadline for a deal tomorrow. In an ensuing cabinet meeting, Trump noted that he thought “oil prices would go up more and the stock market would go down more” in the midst of the conflict, paradoxically signaling that the global economy may need to deteriorate further to exert substantial enough pressure force a ceasefire.

For its part, Iran has officially rejected the US’s proposed 15-point peace agreement, issuing a 5-point counteroffer of its own that is unlikely to be accepted. Separately, media outlets are reporting that Iran is preparing to deploy over 1 million troops if the US launches a ground invasion into Iran.

All eyes now turn to Friday’s “deadline,” which may of course be extended again, as a major crossroads in the conflict.

Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis: NDX Daily Chart

Source: Tradingview, StoneX

Technically speaking, the Nasdaq 100 is on track for its lowest close in six months, barring a late rally, breaking key support in the 24,000 level in the process. This comes after the index sliced through its 200-day MA for the first time in 10 months last week.

While the technical outlook for the index is dour, the biggest stocks within it look arguably worse, highlighted by -30% drawdowns from record highs in Magnificent 7 names Microsoft and Meta Platforms (Facebook).

Unless and until we get good news on the Iran conflict, the path of least resistance remains down for the Nasdaq 100, with the next support level at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 rally near 22,500. Meanwhile, any bounces will be treated with skepticism by bears until we’re back above the 200-day MA near 24,500.

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX

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