Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Bears Go for the Break

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels

USD/CHF poised to mark weekly reversal off 2025 high- attempting to break September uptrend
USD/CHF risk for larger correction ahead- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap
Resistance 9147, 9225/48 (key), 9319- Support 8958, 8861/85 (key), 8758

The USD/CHF is attempting to break below a multi-month uptrend with a weekly reversal off the yearly high now underway. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart into February open with U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that the, “USD/CHF rally is approaching initial resistance just higher- risk for possible price inflection. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the lower parallel IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 9144 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance…”

The rally registered an intraweek high at 9201 the following week before exhausting with USD/CHF attempting to break the lower parallel of the September pitchfork this week. Risk for a deeper set-back here IF this break holds into the weekly close.

Initial weekly support rests with the November high at 8958 and is backed closely by the 52-week moving average / 38.2% retracement of the September rally at 8861/85. A break / close below this threshold would suggest a more significant high was registered last month / a larger reversal is underway with subsequent support objectives seen at the 2021 low near 8758 and the 61.8% retracement at 8690.

Weekly resistance is eyed with the 2024 high-close / January high-week close at 9147/50 with critical resistance steady at 9225/48- a region defined by the 2024 swing high, the 2023 yearly open, and the 50% retracement of the 2022 decline. Breach/ close above this pivot zone is needed to mark uptrend resumption with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 100% extension of the September advance at 9319 and the 61.8% retracement at 9455- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: USD/CHF is threatening a break of the September uptrend and leaves the bulls on the defensive early in the month. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 9147 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a break below 8957 needed to fuel the next leg of the correction. Ultimately, we are on the lookout for a possible exhaustion low in the weeks ahead.

Keep in mind we are in the early throws of the February opening-range with the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.

FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.

FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.

GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.