US Dollar Price Action Setups: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

US Dollar Talking Points:

• The USD retains a bullish lean from daily and weekly charts and that has held over the past week despite below-expected inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday.
• As looked at in the Tuesday webinar, the response to counter-trend stimuli is telling for trend construction, and the question for next week is whether EUR/USD bears can make a push-lower as the pair has stalled just below the 1.1500 handle.

The true test of trend is what happens in the face of counter-trend stimuli. Do bulls come in to defend the higher-low, looking at the sell-off as opportunistic? Or do they cut bait and run, allowing for further support breaks and an opening door for reversal potential.

We had such a scenario this week in the USD, where both CPI and PPI printed below expectations. Markets are still primed for rate hike potential into the end of the year and that’s helped to keep the USD in a bullish spot from both weekly and daily charts.

US Dollar Weekly Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

With US rate hike expectations still holding despite that below-expected CPI and PPI data, USD/JPY retains breakout potential.

I looked into this one in-depth on Monday, highlighting the fact that a below-expected inflation print could allow for pullback, which is what happened. And then buyers jumped on the bid which further highlights bullish continuation potential as there’s now been a continuation of higher-lows.

At this point, buyers haven’t yet wanted to test beyond the 163 level, and that’s helped to create a symmetrical triangle which normally is a non-directional formation. But given the prior trend, that triangle points to a bull pennant formation, which retains a topside bias for continuation scenarios and this remains my most attractive venue for USD-strength.

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

EUR/USD

For next week, I think EUR/USD carries a lot of weight for the USD and in-turn, major FX pairs. There’s an ECB rate decision on Thursday and since the breakdown in the pair in late-June, there’s been stalling over the past few weeks. So far, we’ve had a hold of resistance around 1.1469, but the higher-lows that have built over the past few weeks suggest that the move is already well priced-in and I think ideally, a counter-trend move with a test up to or around 1.1500 could make for a more attractive backdrop for bears.

There’s the risk of a short-squeeze type of scenario, as well, so I want to circle a deeper resistance zone in that event and for that, there’s a prior support-turned-resistance area running from 1.1576 up to 1.1613.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

GBP/USD

For USD-weakness, I’m still in favor of GBP/USD and the pair put in another fresh high this week even as the USD held support at prior resistance. For next week, it’s UK CPI on Wednesday that’s the big focal point and I had looked into the pair in the Wednesday article, with GBP/USD having since held support at the ‘s1’ area on the chart, around 1.3450.

Deeper support remains around the 1.3390 Fibonacci level up to the 1.3400 zone, and then the 1.3325 level is the ‘s3’ and if bulls can’t hold prices above that, then USD-strength has probably taken over and the breakout USD/JPY would be a more attractive venue to track that theme, in my opinion.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro