US Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Preview (AUG 2025)

US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a 73K rise in July amid forecasts for a 110K print, while Average Hourly Earnings unexpectedly widened to 3.9% from 3.8% during the same period.

US Economic Calendar – August 1

A deeper look at the report showed the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.2% from 4.1% in June even as the Labor Force Participation Rate narrowed to 62.2% from 62.3% during the same period.

At the same time, the update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that ‘employment continued to trend up in health care and in social assistance,’ but went onto say that ‘the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000.‘

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EUR/USD Chart – 15 Minute

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

The weaker-than-expected NFP print led to a bearish reaction in the US Dollar as EUR/USD rallied to a fresh session high (1.1597), with the exchange rate ending the week at 1.1586. The recovery in EUR/USD carried into the days ahead as the exchange rate closed the following week at 1.1642.

Looking ahead, the US is expected to add 75K jobs in August, while the Unemployment Rate is seen widening to 4.3% from 4.2% during the same period.

With that said, indications of a weakening labor market may drag on the US Dollar as it puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to further unwind its restrictive policy, but a better-than-expected NFP report may generate a bullish reaction in the Greenback as it raises the central bank’s scope to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Additional Market Outlooks

US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Defends Rebound from August Low

US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Pulls Back Ahead of August High

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Eyes Monthly Low Ahead of US PCE

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Defends Rebound from Monthly Low

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

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