Weekly Equities Outlook: Tesla, Alphabet, Lloyds

Tesla Q2 earnings

Tesla is due to report Q2 earnings on Wednesday, July 23rd, after the market close. The numbers come as the share price trades 15% lower year to date. Sales, revenue, and margins are expected to decline sharply as the EV maker navigates the fallout from CEO Musk’s involvement in US politics and rising competition.

We already know that Tesla missed its delivery target, with a disappointing 384,122 vehicles, down 13.5% year-over-year amid fading EV market share, rising competition, and a brand tarnished by Musk’s recent foray into politics. Furthermore, Trump's big beautiful tax bill, signed into law this quarter, means the loss of EV tax credits, which has already resulted in temporary price cuts on the Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.

One of the key points in this earnings call will be Musk’s position on the rollout of robo-taxis after Tesla launches its railroad taxis in Austin on June 22, with a small number of Model Y vehicles. Despite the small scale of this test, there have been reports of traffic law violations, which are being looked into. However, should self-driving technology start to ramp up over the coming years, this could be a game-changer.

Expectations are for APS 2 420.43, down from 0.52 in the same quarter a year earlier, and gross margins are expected to stabilize at 16.44% after dropping to 16.3% in Q1 of this year. Revenue is expected to fall 11% to 22.8 billion compared to a year ago.

How to trade TSLA earnings?

Tesla trades below its falling trendline dating back to the December 2024 high, and the price has recovered from the 214 low, trading symmetrically in a triangle. The price has lifted off the rising trendline support, pushing above the 200 SMA. Buyers will look to rise above the falling trendline at 337 and 356, the June 24 high, and 365, the May high. On the downside, support is at 316. If the price breaks below here, bring the rising trendline support at 305 into focus. A breakout of the triangle brings the July low of 290 into play.

Alphabet earnings preview

The parent company, Alphabet, is due to release its results on Wednesday, July 23rd, after the market closes. The market will be watching closely for insight into how the company is navigating increased competition from AI and search.

With the rise of ChatGPT and AI's reliance on traditional search engines, the advertising revenue they generate could be slowing. Alphabet has launched Gemini 2.5 pro, its latest generative AI model, and has leveraged its vast user base to drive AI adoption. AI has also been integrated into Google Search, demonstrating its use in enhancing existing products with AI.

Google Cloud is the most significant growth opportunity, and the division is expected to grow revenue by 26% year-over-year in Q2 as the business gains market share from competitors Amazon and Microsoft.

Expectations are for EPS of $2.17, up 15%, which is half the EPS growth of the previous four quarters, on revenue of $93.8 billion, up 10.7% year-over-year, as growth moderates. Amid rising competition, search revenue is expected to increase 8.7% to $52.75 billion, while cloud computing revenue will rise to $13.1 billion, and YouTube ad revenue will climb 10% to $9.54 billion.

Despite the challenges that Alphabet faces, Wall Street analysts remain broadly positive, with 43 of 55 analysts maintaining a buy rating. The average target price has declined to $215.

How to trade GOOGLE earnings?

GOOGL has traded within a rising channel since April, encountering resistance at 185. The RSI is above 50, indicating further upside potential. Buyers will look to rise above 185 to push towards 190, the rising trendline resistance, and the February high. Above here 200, comes into play.

On the downside, support can be seen at 180, the weekly low. Below, the 200 SMA comes into play at 173, which also corresponds to the July low. A break below here, at 170, the lower band of the rising channel, opens the door to a deeper selloff towards 160.

Lloyds Q2 results

Lloyds is set to post earnings on Thursday, which comes as the share price has risen 40% year to date, outpacing all other major UK banks, and as the Supreme Court is expected to make a judgment on the motor finance case later this month.

Lloyds has already set aside £1.15 billion in provisions and is expected to set aside a further £800 million over the rest of this year. Lloyds has around 14% share of the motor finance market, making it the most exposed of the central UK banks.

Analysts have been positive on the UK banking sector for some time, amid resilient earnings and robust capital returns. Furthermore, easing regulatory rhetoric from the Bank of England has also improved the sector’s outlook. Another solid quarter's performance is expected, underpinned by stable net interest margins and strong underlying capital generation. Deposit balances are expected to hold steady, supported by cash ISA inflows.

Expectations are for a net income of $4.5 billion, up from $ 4.4 billion in the first quarter. In Q2, net income is expected to increase from $ 1.84 billion in the previous quarter. Profit before tax is forecast to come in at $ 1.69 billion.

The net interest margin is expected to improve from 3.03% in Q1 to 3.05%.

Add a dividend of 1.17p, forecasted for the first pass, when expected to be 3.5p, a full dividend for 2025. This is alongside a predicted £1.76 billion share buyback.

How to trade Lloyd's results

The share price recovered from the 50.70 2025 low, rising to a peak of 78.75, before easing lower. The price is consolidating around 77p. Buyers will look to break out above 79.20 to bring 80, a psychological level last seen in 2008, into focus.

Support can be seen at 76.00, the 50 SMA. Below here, 73.50 support zone comes into play. A break below here creates a lower low.