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Crypto rallies despite SEC actions
Stocks were mixed at midday as traders battle the current malaise ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear index, moved to new lows suggesting no great concerns. Coinbase, the listed crypto exchange, was sued by the SEC and ten state regulators, a day after competitor Binance faced its ire. Bitcoin and other crypto tokens rallied. China’s economic recovery saw more bad news, but the World Bank remained upbeat on global growth.
Oil rallies, Bitcoin slumps
Oil prices rallied after news that OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, will reduce oil output. Equity, bond and currency markets were largely unchanged as traders look ahead to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and the outlook for interest rates. Economic data indicated economic growth, but a slower pace. US/China tensions continue to rise over Taiwan and remain an uncertain wild card for markets. Crypto stocks were slammed as the SEC sued exchange operator Binance.
Russell 2000 leads markets higher, despite another strong jobs report
Smaller and more cyclical stocks in the Russell 2000 index led a buoyant stock market following passage of the debt ceiling bill, sending the measure to President Biden for his signature. Much stronger than expected payroll numbers failed to dampen enthusiasm. Small cap stocks led the rally, taking up leadership from tech stocks. Gold fell back and oil rallied.
Gold rallies and equities fall on stronger jobs data, rate hike risks rise
Stocks remained under pressure today ahead of an expected House of Representatives vote on the debt ceiling deal this evening that would then send the bill to the Senate. Any hint of a slip in approving the deal would spook financial markets. Domestic jobs market data was surprisingly strong, suggesting the next move in interest rates will be up. There was more disappointing economic data out of China, hitting the energy, metals and agricultural commodity markets.
Nasdaq 100 doesn’t wait to ask ‘are we there yet?’
Aside from a continuing surge in AI stocks boosting the Nadaq 100, stocks were generally mixed this morning as work on the Hill turned to turning the debt ceiling deal into a final agreement in both houses on Congress. Don’t crack the champagne just yet – the deal isn’t sealed yet. Crude oil prices were down by more than 4% on the growth outlook if the US defaults, and skepticism about further supply cuts this week's OPEC+ meeting.
Nasdaq 100 set to extend 2023 rally?
US equities are poised to continue the past 2-month rally after today’s Memorial day holiday, with the Nasdaq 100 likely to benefit most. Of major markets open today, the Nikkei 225 was up over 1% (clocking a 20% rise for the year.) US stock futures rose modestly. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear index, fell to 17 this morning, on debt ceiling news.
Nasdaq 100 heads to 12 month high as debt ceiling deal looks close
Nasdaq 100 lead equity markets higher even as bond markets dipped. Markets reacted positively to the belief that a deal on the debt ceiling is close (surprise surprise), but better than expected economic data led to higher expectations for rates (something not expected a few months ago.) The US dollar held on to recent gains, gold was unchanged, and oil bounced back after recent profit taking.
Bearish Base Metals Bottoming Out?
The macro, micro and technical outlook for base metals has been pretty bearish, and it is not surprising that the base metals price index has fallen to six months lows. Market sentiment towards the outlook for a rebound in economic growth within China weakened this year with the release of disappointing economic data.
Nasdaq 100 rebounds even as US debt is put on negative watch
The Nasdaq 100 rebounded this morning as traders become more optimistic on an agreement to raise the US debt ceiling, while Fitch became the first rating agency in this cycle to put US debt on negative watch in case it didn’t. Revised GDP data shows that the consumer spent more on goods and services in the first quarter than early reports, and today’s economic data also suggests the economy is gaining momentum and the job sector is still tight. Fed fund futures are now pricing in the likelihood of one to two more rate hikes this year, now becoming baked into market sentiment.
$80 Oil, despite current weakness?
My colleague Fawad Razaqzada recently noted that the Brent oil price has been testing upwards resistance for several days, but concerns over demand have prevented the bulls from committing to the upside. In recent days the bulls have been given supply side reasons to support an upward move, with news that suggests a tighter oil market in the second half of the year. Could oil move back above $80?
Oil shines as Nasdaq 100 dips, with VIX fear index climbing
The VIX, Wall Street’s fear index, rose to 21 this morning, pricing in fears that the debt ceiling talks don't go well, and/or rates will rise further. Oil prices shone on news that supplies might tighten in the near future, bad news for economic growth and inflation. Today’s release of the minutes of the May Federal Reserve meeting reported significant uncertainty on where rates go next.