Bonds

Stay in step with market opportunities and get insights, actionable trade ideas and dedicated support.

  • Newest
  • Popular
japan_02

USD/JPY reclaims 150 as US yields push higher into producer price inflation report

Look no further than relative central bank interest rate expectations if you’re wondering what’s driving USD/JPY right now. The pair is moving in lockstep with US two-year Treasury note yields, running with a positive correlation of 0.96 on the daily over the past month.

default avatar
February 16, 2024 03:15 AM
Federal reserve building

US bond yields threatening to break higher in blow to soft landing beneficiaries

US two-year Treasury yields are at risk of breaking back into the higher range they traded in prior to the Federal Reserve’s policy pivot last year, creating opportunities in markets sensitive to shifts in US rate expectations such as Australia’s ASX 200, USD/JPY and gold.

default avatar
February 12, 2024 01:39 AM

The complete CFD trading experience

Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.

We live and breathe the markets. For over 20 years, we've helped traders realise their ambitions and continue to set the industry bar.

Trading view chart close-up
gold_05

Gold outlook: Home on the range with significant risk events ahead

Gold held up well last week despite rising US yields, assisted in part by continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East. But in week with key inflation reports in the United States and United Kingdom, there are plenty of catalysts looming on the horizon that could shake gold from its slumber.

default avatar
February 9, 2024 07:02 AM
An office of traders with multiple trading screens

Range highs for US yields brings reversal risk for Gold, USD/JPY

A blowout payrolls report, another pushback from Jerome Powell against excessive rate cut bets and a surprise reacceleration in US service sector activity has seen the short end of the US Treasury curve come roaring back to life with yields surging higher.

default avatar
February 7, 2024 05:12 AM
gold_02

Gold Forecast: Bond yields and geopolitics on the radar as traders’ eye fresh highs

Gold’s outlook looks set to be dictated by geopolitical tensions along with the US rate outlook. Having broken its downtrend, the directional risks appear skewed to the upside near-term, putting a retest of the highs hit last year on the radar.

default avatar
February 3, 2024 03:00 AM
gold_03

Gold isn’t responding to shifts in US interest rate like it used to

Gold’s inverse relationship with US real bond yields weakened late last year as geopolitical tensions ramped up, delivering less upside than what would have typically occurred in the past, according to Morgan Stanley.

default avatar
January 10, 2024 04:57 AM
Research

Strong payroll data doesn’t deter equity bulls with Nasdaq up and Russell 2000 down

Today’s payroll data reiterated the run of strong labor market data with wages growing at 4% a key concern for the Fed. Futures markets reduced the probability of early rate cuts, but traders made few changes to their bullish stance on equities, bonds, gold or the dollar.

Research

Dow challenges peak, Bitcoin’s mainstream moment is expected

The Dow Jones has quickly shaken off yesterday’s late losses is challenging record highs despite the comedown of the Fed minutes yesterday. The market remains optimistic over the state of the US economy, supported by today’s various jobs sector data releases; the flip-side is that too much strength could slow the pace of interest rate cuts with the Fed “likely at or near its peak rates” according to December policy meeting minutes yesterday. The Bitcoin rally will be tested pretty soon, as the SEC is intended to approve (or not) Bitcoin ETFs.

Research

Oil prices rallies above $70 support, Russell 2000 dips on profit-taking

Oil prices appear to have found support at $70 per barrel, with news of US stock building, further OPEC+ production cuts and Middle East tensions spurring buying action. The Fed’s December meeting minutes were cagey on the outlook for interest rates in 2024. JOLTS labor market data pointed to further weakness, good news for inflation.

Research

Nasdaq tumbles as bonds sell off, Gold holds historic highs

Equity, bond, and gold investors are pricing in large rate cuts in 2024, starting in March, but this week’s jobs data could spoil the fun. A bullish December for stocks might have pulled forward the typical January rally, spurred by the belief that the Fed is about to pivot. US Treasuries sold off in morning trade, with worries about the appetite to digest the major volume of new issues. There is some risk of disappointment in the interest rate outlook, notably with commodity prices indicating persistent inflation so there is less chance of a rate-cutting bonanza.

Research

Russell 2000 leads US stocks, Gold hits another all-time high

The Russell 2000 was again the strongest US index, continuing a trend evident for two months. Gold prices touched $2,082.5 per ounce this morning, buoyed by a mixture of risk aversion and the anticipation of lower interest rates. This morning’s economic data showed strong durable goods demand and a modest decline in a key inflation gauge, the ‘PCE deflator’, generally supporting rate cuts early next year.

Research

Russell 2000 continues recent run, Oil prices dip despite output cuts

US equity markets bounced back in morning trade, again led by the Russell 2000, after yesterday’s worries about the pace of rate cuts, as traders ignored anything but a rosy rate cutting in 2024. Oil prices slipped, down 1.3%, despite various indications that oil output will be cut next year by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s top two producers.

Research

Consumer’s increasingly confident, but investors take a breath with major indexes and gold at all-time highs

Consumer confidence rose sharply in December, casting a shadow on early rate cuts and stalling the recent equity market rally aside from continued strength in the Russell 2000. Equity markets and gold still look set to end the year on all-time highs, Bitcoin has close to doubled, with interest rate optimism seemingly pulling forward the traditional January rally.

Research

Russell 2000 leads markets towards eighth winning week, but is the Fed saying too much?

The rate-sensitive Russell 2000 index led markets higher this morning, pointing to an eighth week of successive market gains as Fed officials continued to quell hope of rate cuts as soon as next March, arguing that policy is not fixed and will be data-driven. We consider the real impact of Fed jawboning on the economy and financial markets. The Bank of Japan held interest rates below zero yesterday, giving no clues as to when it might exit negative levels.