Forex

Prediction markets are pricing in nearly 75% odds of a Democratic sweep in this week’s US midterm elections, a development that would result in a split from the single party Republican rule of the past two years - what will it mean for markets?

The GBP/USD heads into a crowded week of event risk, with the midterm elections, a Bank of England rate decision and Friday's non-farm payrolls report all capable of moving markets sharply. The greenback remains fundamentally well supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve, but much of that is already priced in, while the renewed sell-off in technology stocks has exposed its vulnerability.

USD/JPY has barely moved despite tumbling US Treasury yields and a sharp selloff in AI stocks. Can elevated energy prices continue to offset the pressure?

The US Dollar was up this week through a slew of Central Banks but next week sees the focus shift to mid-term elections and the week after brings inflation.

While the energy shock is a major heading for the euro, the single currency remains supported by a hawkish European Central Bank while growth data in the Eurozone has also been surprisingly resilient. Meanwhile, the dollar faces some near-term positioning risks as markets look ahead to the US midterm elections and given the renewed weakness in technology stocks.

The trading week is approaching its end and, for now, a neutral tone continues to dominate the euro's short-term price action. EUR/USD has recorded a move of only around -0.15% during the week, highlighting the pair's inability to establish a clear direction in favor of either the euro or the U.S. dollar.

With just one trading session left before the week comes to an end, the strength that has recently emerged around the Canadian dollar has once again become relevant. This can be observed in the recent performance of USD/CAD, which has declined nearly 0.3% over the last two trading sessions.

USD/CAD is closing in on critical support, with a potential exhaustion low in focus as the Fed decision raises the stakes for the monthly close.

Sterling’s sharp retreat from major resistance puts critical support in focus, raising the stakes for GBP/USD ahead of the Fed decision.

Australia's inflation problem extends well beyond energy, with markets now pricing further RBA hikes into 2027. So why has AUD/USD reversed sharply after its initial surge?

French debt was the market's obsession a week ago. Now, short-term correlations suggest technology sentiment may be calling more of the shots, with central bank decisions and heavyweight tech earnings threatening to accelerate the euro's decline.

Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in ~90% odds that the FOMC leaves rates unchanged this week, but the big question is whether FOMC Chairman Warsh can deliver a true hawkish hike.